Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 022020 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 420 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... SNDGS SHOW AIRMASS BASICALLY TO DRY TO SPRT MUCH IF ANY SHWR ACTIVITY THIS AFTRN...SO DECIDED TO DROP POPS THRU 00Z. HIGH PRS GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVR THE MTS DUE TO THE SLOW EWRD MOVNMNT OF THE CSTL LOW. XPCT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HTNG AFTR SUNSET. SOME PTCHY FOG PSBL WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR AFTR MIDNITE...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN LHIS MORN. ANTHR COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M40S-L50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... OCEAN LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW RIDGE AXIS TO BUILD OVR THE REGION SUNDAY THEN SET UP SHOP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THRU TUE. LGT AND VRBL WNDS SUN BECOMES SW MON & TUE DUE TO RETURN FLOW. THIS APPREARS TO BE A DECENT SETUP FOR DAILY SEA BREEZES TO DVLP. GFS IS FASTER WITH BRINGING IN PCPN CHCS TO NWRN PIEDMONT CNTYS BY LATE TUE. KEPT TUE DRY FOR NOW. A SLOW WRMG XPCTD. HIGHS SUN 75-80 XCPT 65-70 AT THE BEACHES. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS MON/TUE U70S-L80S XCPT 65-70 AT THE BEACHES. LOWS MON NITE 55-60. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SFC HI PRES WILL BE CNTRD WELL OFF THE MID ATLC CST TUE NGT INTO WED MORNG...MAINTAINING DRY WX. A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY POSSIBLY DROP INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER WED THRU THU. FOR NOW...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLGT CHC OF A SHOWER OR TSTM OVR NRN AND WRN COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME. THEN...THU NGT THRU SAT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LO PRES SPINNING SOMEWHERE OFF THE SE CST. HAVE A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVR SRN COUNTIES THU NGT THRU FRI NGT...THEN A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS OVR MOST OF THE AREA ON SAT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WX WILL PREVAIL WITH ABV NORMAL TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOW PRESSURE NOW WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...WITH A SCT- BKN CU CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE TIDEWATER AND CENTRAL VA BETWEEN 4KFT - 5KFT. WITH LOSS OF HEATING EVENING SKIES WILL CLEAR AROUND SUNSET AND REMAIN CLEAR INTO SUNDAY. WIND HAVE DECREASED TO GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 KT. WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE N BUT DUE TO THE RELAXED PRES GRADIANT BAY EFFECT WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN EAST WINDS AT PHF. CLEAR AND BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK: VFR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS INDICATED THROUGH EARLY TO MID WEEK...NEXT CHC FOR SHOWERS NOT REALLY UNTIL WED AFTN. && .MARINE...
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AS OF THE LATE AFTN ISSUANCE...HAVE DROPPED THE SCA FOR THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY. STILL HAVE SCA FOR THE NRN THREE CSTL WTRS UNTIL 1 AM TNGT...AND FOR THE SRN TWO CSTL WTRS UNTIL 4 AM EARLY SUN MORNG...DUE TO SEAS STILL 5 TO 6 FT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL SUN INTO WED...AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE WATERS THEN SLIDES OUT TO SEA. FAIRLY MINIMAL SYNOPTIC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO DAILY SEABREEZES AND SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW UP THE BAY AT NIGHT (THOUGH SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS). BACKDOOR COLD FRONT POSSIBLE LATER WED INTO THU COMBINED WITH SFC LOW OFF THE GA/SC CST WOULD POTENTIALLY INCREASE WIND SPEEDS AND SHIFT DIRECTIONS TO THE E/NE.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...BMD/MPR SHORT TERM...BMD/MPR LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...JAO MARINE...TMG

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