Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 031936 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 336 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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H5 RIDGE SLIDES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. LIGHT S-SW FLOW RESULTS IN WARMER MIN TMPS THAN PRVIOUS NIGHTS. LOWS L-M50S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY MORNING WEDNESDAY/...
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SFC HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST THRU MID WEEK. MODELS DVLP A LEE TROF MON AFTRN BUT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF THE FA AS AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY CAPPED. SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY DVLP MON AFTRN. MSTLY SUNNY AND WARM. HIGHS L-M80S XCPT M-U70S COASTAL AREAS...65-70 AT THE BEACHES. MSTLY CLR MON NIGHT. LOWS 55-60. ALMOST THE SAME SETUP FOR TUE AS THE OFFSHORE RIDGE HOLDS FIRM ACROSS THE REGION. ONLY DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE APPRCHG TROF TO THE NORTH SAGS A BIT FRTHR SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION CAN GET. KEPT FCST DRY THRU 00Z WED. ANTHR WARM DAY WITH LCL SEA BREEZES DVLPNG. HIGHS 80-85 XCPT 75-80 COASTAL AREAS...ARND 70 AT THE BEACHES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANY CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MOVING SE ALONG THE APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TUE NIGHT. NAM/GFS PROGG ONE SUCH SYSTM TO TRACK ACROSS THE VA NRN NECK / LWR MD ERN SHORE TUE NIGHT. WILL INDICATE LOW CHC POPS IN THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TYPE OF EVENT. OTW... MSTLY CLR TO PT CLDY. LOWS U50S-L60S. SFC TROF OUT AHEAD OF MAIN FRNTL BNDRY APPRCHS FROM THE NW WED WITH BEST CHCS FOR CONVECTION IN THE AFTRN / EVE ACROSS NWRN TWO THIRDS OF FA. WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE U70S-L80S...XCPT M70S CSTL AREAS.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC AND SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE LONG TERM. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN WASHES OUT OVER SRN PORTIONS THURSDAY. A SURFACE HIGH RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A SUBTROPICAL STORM (SEE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK). DETAILS OF THE PROGRESS OF THE LOW ARE UNCERTAIN BUT RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE LOW AND ITS IMPACT TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM WITH POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT...MAINLY OVER SRN AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT THURSDAY BEHIND THE BACK DOOR FRONT. OVERALL...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RANGE THROUGH THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S EXCEPT UPR 60S TO LWR 70S NEAR THE COAST. LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MIDDAY SUNDAY FEATURED A FIELD OF CUMULUS WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. BASES OF THE CLOUDS WERE GENERALLY AROUND 8-10K FT WITH AN USUALLY HIGH LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL FOR THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY. WINDS BELOW 10K FT ARE LIGHT AND AS A RESULT SO ARE THE WINDS AT THE SURFACE SHOULD RUNNING AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST. WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE DURING THE AFTN AT ORF DUE TO LOCAL INFLUENCES. DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEW POINTS...NO FOG IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES. UNDER A CLEAR SKY...WINDS CONTINUE LIGHT OVERNIGHT MAINLY FROM THE SW. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH A BIT MORE WIND BY AFTERNOON THAN TODAY...GENERALLY AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING. THERE IS A SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS NRN PORTIONS LATE TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE ACROSS MOST OT HE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .MARINE...
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UPDATE TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY... AS OF 10 AM...THE SCA FOR THE SRN VA WATERS WAS DROPPED ON SCHEDULE BUT THE SCA FOR THE NC WATERS WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 4 PM. AS OF 7 AM...SEAS REMAIN 5-6 FT ACRS NC COASTAL WATERS...STILL HOVERING NEAR 5 FT AT BUOY 44009 BUT NEARSHORE SEAS AT OCEAN CITY ARE DOWN TO 3 FT. HAVE ALLOWED SCA TO EXPIRE FOR COASTAL WATERS N OF CAPE CHARLES. WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH 10AM FOR SRN VA WATERS AND EXTENDED THOUGH 1 PM FOR NC WATERS. ALL OF THIS IS SWELL AS WINDS ARE NOW OFFSHORE FROM THE W/SW AT AROUND 10 KT. OTHER THAN SEAS REMAINING SOMEWHAT ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN INTO TONIGHT DUE TO SWELL...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO WED...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS THEN BECOMES ANCHORED ALONG/JUST OFF THE NC AND SE VA COAST MON-WED. FAIRLY MINIMAL SYNOPTIC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO DAILY SEABREEZES AND SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW UP THE BAY AT NIGHT (THOUGH SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS). FROM MON-WED SEAS LOOK TO AVG 2-4 FT WHILE WAVES IN THE BAY GENLY 1-2 FT. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT POSSIBLE LATER WED INTO THU COMBINED WITH SFC LOW OFF THE GA/SC CST WOULD POTENTIALLY INCREASE WIND SPEEDS AND SHIFT DIRECTIONS TO THE E/NE ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLOWER AT BRINGING THAT SFC LOW NORTHWARD SO ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS/SEAS PROBABLY HOLDS OFF UNTIL FRI/SAT.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...LSA AVIATION...LSA MARINE...TMG

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