Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 160723 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 323 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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LATEST MSAS SHOWING A NEARLY STNRY FRONTAL BNDRY SNAKING IT WAY ACROSS THE SERN STATES TO THE TN VLLY WITH A SFC TROF XTNDG NE ALONG THE APPLACH MTS. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH IS CENTERED OVR UPSTATE NY. BATTLE CONTS TO BE DRAWN BETWEEN THE DRIER AIR NOSING SOUTH FROM THE HIGH VERSUS THE OVERRUNNING MSTR TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. LATEST MODEL DATA FAVORS THE DRIER AIR WINNING OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE FA TODAY. XPCTN BEING ACROSS SW VA PIEDMONT AND INTERIOR NE NC CNTYS WHERE 20-30 POP WILL BE MAINTAINED. KEPT IF DRY ELSEWHERE. TSCTNS SHOW ENUF DRYING FOR AT LEAST PT SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE AREAS TODAY. MSTLY CLDY TO CLDY ELSEWHERE. HIGHS 65-70.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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MODEL DIFFERENCES IN MSTR FIELDS ENTER THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS NEXT AREA OF LIFT MOVES ASSCTD WITH SRN TROF MOVES NNE INTO THE SFC RIDGE. DATA SUGGESTS THE DEEPEST MSTR POOLS IVOF THE SFC TROF TO THE NW OF FA WITH ANTHR WEAKER ENERGY PULSE ALONG THE SRN TROF LEAVING MOST OF THE AKQ FA BTWN SYSTMS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SPRT FOR PCPN. THUS...MADE CHANGES TO TONIGHTS FCST GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO. KEPT THE EVENING DRY ALONG/E OF THE I95 CORRIDOR AS RIDGE HOLDS FIRM. KEPT 20-30 POPS OVR WRN MOST PIEDMONT CNTYS. GIVEN THE AMT OF MSTR AVAILIBLE AND WEAK LIFT SPILLING E...KEPT CHC POPS ALL AREAS AFTR MIDNIGHT. MAY ALSO SEE PTCHY DRIZZLE/FOG GIVEN A NEARLY SATURATED AIRMASS. LOWS 50-55. HIGH PRS MOVES FRTHR E BY FRI ALLOWING THE FLOW TO BECOME MORE SRLY. AFTR MORNING LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE...XPCT TO SEE A GRDL LIFTING OF THE CLOUDS INTO MORE OF A SCT-BKN CU DECK DRNG THE AFTRN. LINGERING MSTR COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SCT SHWRS. WRMR WITH HIGHS 70-75 CSTL AREAS...M-U70S W OF THE BAY. LINGERING SHWRS FRI EVENING THEN REMAINING PT CLDY AS THE NEXT AREA OF HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. DATA SUGGESTS ANTHR CHC FOR STRATUS/PTCHY FOG TO DVLP. LOWS IN THE L-M50S. WEAK HIGH PRS BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SAT SHUNTING ANY PCPN SOUTH OF THE FA. WARM UNDER PT TO MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS M-U70 CSTL AREAS NEAR 80 WEST OF THE BAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SUN INTO SUN NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FM THE W AND A WARM FRNT STARTS SLIDING N THRU THE AREA. POPS DAYTIME SUN RANGE FM 20% NE TO 60% SW...AND 70% SUN NIGHT. TEMPS SUN CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPR 60S WITH MAINLY MID TO UPR 50S AS LOWS SUN NIGHT. RAIN LIKELY INTO MON AS WELL WITH A COLD FRNT SLOW TO PUSH THRU THE AREA...FINALLY DRYING OUT MON NIGHT. DRY WX THEN EXPECTED INTO TUE WITH HI PRES OVER THE AREA. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVERED THE TAF SITES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. LATEST MODELS STILL KEEP ANY PCPN SOUTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES TODAY. HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE A BKN-OVC DECK AROUND 5000FT DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING OR AFTN ALL SITES. OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RAINFALL WILL BE RATHER LIGHT BUT IFR CONDS MAY DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH RAIN DEVELOPING FROM W TO E SUNDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...LIKELY POPS ARE INDICATED EVERYWHERE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF IFR CAN BE EXPECTED. && .MARINE...
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SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANZ658 AS PROLONGED NE FLOW ALLOWS FOR 5 FT SEAS TO CONTINUE MAINLY OUT AROUND 20 NM. ENE WINDS 10-15 KT EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS TODAY...THEN LIGHT ESE WINDS TONIGHT. HAVE EXTENDED SCA FOR ANZ658 THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WILL SEE HOW SEAS RESPOND AS WINDS LESSEN. THEREAFTER...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED FRI THRU SUN WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...JDM MARINE...JDM

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