Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 160015 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 815 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... LYRD CLDNS RMNS WIDESPREAD OVR THE FA THIS AFTN. AREA OF RA HAS CONTD TO HAVE DIFFICULTY MOVING INTO THE FA FM THE WSW DUE TO DRY LO LVL AIR FUNNELING S DUE TO HI PRES OVR THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE DRY LO LVL AIR XPCD TO WIN OUT THROUGH TNGT W/ ANY RA RMNG S AND W OF THE FA. VRB CLDS-PCLDY NNE TO MCLDY SSW. LO TEMPS MNLY FM 40 TO 45F N TO 45 TO 50F S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... SFC HI PRES BUILDS INTO NEW ENG ON THU...CONTG TO PROVIDING DRY AIR INTO THE FA. NEXT PUSH OF MOISTURE OF THE SW BEGINS BY LT THU...RESULTING IN INCRSG CLDNS AND CHC POPS (30-40%) ALG-W OF A LINE FM ECG-LKU BY MID/LT THU AFTN. ELSW...WILL HOLD POPS TO AOB 20%. AN AREA OF RA XPCD TO CROSS THE RGN THU NGT...THEN IS SLO TO DISSIPATE ON FRI. WILL HAVE RA (POPS 40-60%) ACRS THE FA THU NGT...TAPERING TO SHRAS (30-40%) ON FRI. CLDNS LIKELY TO RMN STUBBORN INTO FRI AFTN/EVE AS WK HI PRES IS SLO TO BECOME RE- ESTABLISHED INVOF FA. LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE FRI NGT/ERY SAT ALG W/ LGT/VRB WNDS MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS. THOSE CONDS XPCD TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL CLRG DURG SAT. WILL HOLD POPS TO AOB 10% FRI NGT/SAT. HI TEMPS THU MNLY IN THE U60S-L70S. LO TEMPS THU NGT IN THE L/M50S. HI TEMPS FRI FM THE U60S AT THE IMMEDIATE CST TO RANGING THROUGH THE 70S ELSW. HI TEMPS SAT IN THE U60S-L70S RIGHT AT THE CST TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SUN INTO SUN NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FM THE W AND A WARM FRNT STARTS SLIDING N THRU THE AREA. POPS DAYTIME SUN RANGE FM 20% NE TO 60% SW...AND 70% SUN NIGHT. TEMPS SUN CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPR 60S WITH MAINLY MID TO UPR 50S AS LOWS SUN NIGHT. RAIN LIKELY INTO MON AS WELL WITH A COLD FRNT SLOW TO PUSH THRU THE AREA...FINALLY DRYING OUT MON NIGHT. DRY WX THEN EXPECTED INTO TUE WITH HI PRES OVER THE AREA. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVERED THE TAF SITES EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FROM THE NORTH...DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WAS KEEPING PCPN FROM REACHING THE GROUND. IT APPEARS THAT THE LGT PCPN TO THE S/W OF THE AREA WILL RETREAT OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE GENERALLY BEARISH WITH BRINGING PCPN TO THE TAF SITES ON THURSDAY. FOLLOWED THE POPS IN OUR GRIDS WHICH ONLY BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT CHC FOR PCPN TO ECG AND KEPT ALL OTHER LOCATIONS DRY. LIGHT NE/E WINDS WILL INCREASE SE PORTIONS AND BECOME E/SE THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RAINFALL WILL BE RATHER LIGHT BUT IFR CONDS MAY DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH RAIN DEVELOPING FROM W TO E SUNDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...LIKELY POPS ARE INDICATED EVERYWHERE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF IFR CAN BE EXPECTED. && .MARINE... MARINE HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED WITH THIS UPDATE AS PROLONGED NE FLOW ALLOWS FOR 5 FT SEAS TO CONTINUE OVER SRN CSTL WTRS OUT 20 NM. WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENG AS SFC HI PRES CURRENTLY OVR THE ERN GREAT LAKES SLIDES SE INTO THE NE STATES/NRN MID ATLANTIC. EXPECT NE WINDS 10-15 KT OVER THE BAY/SOUND TNGT WITH 15-20 KT WINDS OVER CSTL WTRS. WINDS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS OVER THE LWR BAY THU MORNG...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI ENUF ATTM TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR THIS. THE SCA OVER NC CSTL WTRS ENDS LATE THU AFTN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LO WITH REGARDS TO EXACTLY WHEN SEAS WILL DROP BLO 5 FT...WITH IT PSBLY HAPPENING EARLIER IN THE DAY OR THU NIGHT. THEREAFTER...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED FRI AND SAT WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...LSA MARINE...MAS

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