Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 030554 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 154 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THEN BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... WK SFC HI PRES IN PLACE OVR THE RGN UNDERNEATH NWLY FLO ALOFT. ATMOS DRY AND WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL NGT. OTHER THAN PATCHY CI...XPCG SKC. MAY BE PATCHY FG AFT MDNGT...ESP OVR RURAL AREAS. MOST LO TEMPS FM THE M40S- L50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... OCEAN LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW RIDGE AXIS TO BUILD OVR THE REGION SUNDAY THEN SET UP SHOP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THRU TUE. LGT AND VRBL WNDS SUN BECOMES SW MON & TUE DUE TO RETURN FLOW. THIS APPEARS TO BE A DECENT SETUP FOR DAILY SEA BREEZES TO DVLP. GFS IS FASTER WITH BRINGING IN PCPN CHCS TO NWRN PIEDMONT CNTYS BY LATE TUE. KEPT TUE DRY FOR NOW. A SLOW WRMG XPCTD. HIGHS SUN 75-80 XCPT 65-70 AT THE BEACHES. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS MON/TUE U70S-L80S XCPT 65-70 AT THE BEACHES. LOWS MON NITE 55-60. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SFC HI PRES WILL BE CNTRD WELL OFF THE MID ATLC CST TUE NGT INTO WED MORNG...MAINTAINING DRY WX. A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY POSSIBLY DROP INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER WED THRU THU. FOR NOW...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLGT CHC OF A SHOWER OR TSTM OVR NRN AND WRN COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME. THEN...THU NGT THRU SAT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LO PRES SPINNING SOMEWHERE OFF THE SE CST. HAVE A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVR SRN COUNTIES THU NGT THRU FRI NGT...THEN A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS OVR MOST OF THE AREA ON SAT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WX WILL PREVAIL WITH ABV NORMAL TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACRS THE REGION AS OF 06Z...WINDS GENLY CALM OR LIGHT S/SW. ADDED A TEMPO GROUP AT KECG FOR MVFR VSBY IN SHALLOW GROUND FOG (DUE TO HIGHER RH AND CALM CONDS THERE). KEPT ANY MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE OTHER SITES WITH GREATER TEMP/DEW PT SPREADS AND SOME LIGHT WINDS. A LIGHT W/SW FLOW TO PREVAIL TODAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WEAK SYNOPTIC PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICALLY CONDUCIVE TO WINDS SHIFTING ONSHORE AT THE COAST IN THE AFTN SO HAVE FORECAST WINDS TURNING NE AT KORF (SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT ALL AREAS). LIGHT S/SW FLOW AGAIN TONIGHT WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN S/SW FLOW ON MON. OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS INDICATED THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTN THROUGH THURSDAY. && .MARINE... AS OF 1 AM...MAINTAINING SCA`S ON THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 4 AM FOR NORTHERN WATERS...AND EXTENDED THROUGH 7 AM FOR SRN WATERS BASED ON LATEST OBS/TRENDS. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL LATER TODAY INTO WED...AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE WATERS THEN SLIDES OUT TO SEA. FAIRLY MINIMAL SYNOPTIC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO DAILY SEABREEZES AND SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW UP THE BAY AT NIGHT (THOUGH SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS). BACKDOOR COLD FRONT POSSIBLE LATER WED INTO THU COMBINED WITH SFC LOW OFF THE GA/SC CST WOULD POTENTIALLY INCREASE WIND SPEEDS AND SHIFT DIRECTIONS TO THE E/NE. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-652-654. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ656- 658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...BMD/MPR LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...LKB/LSA MARINE...LKB/TMG

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.