Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021322
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
922 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO DROP THE MORNING FOG AND TO ADJUST CLOUD GRIDS
PER CRNT SAT/SFC OBS. STILL XPCT SC-BKN SC/CU TO DVLP THIS AFTRN
AS WEAK TROF ROTATES ARND DEPARTING CSTL LOW. ISTLD SHWRS PSBL
DRNG PEAK HTNG HRS OVR THE PIEDMONT. HIGH IN THE 60S COASTAL
AREAS TO AROUND 70 INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AS
DAYTIME INSTABILITY IS LOST AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT STARTS TO ERODE
THE SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE COAST MON/MONDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD
OF DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH A
WARMING TREND EACH DAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 70S (LOW-MID
70S IMMEDIATE COAST) AND ON MONDAY IN THE LOWER 80S (MID-UPPER 70S
IMMEDIATE COAST). LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT (UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S)...BECOMING 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT (LOWER
50S INLAND/MID-UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST)...AND THEN CLOSE TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT (UPPER 50S).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HI PRES WILL BE CNTRD OFF THE MID ATLC CST TUE...MAINTAINING DRY
WX AND ABV NORMAL TEMPS. 12Z GFS/ECMWF BOTH HINT AT A BACKDOOR
FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE REGION WED INTO
THU. FOR NOW...HAVE JUST A SLGT CHC OF A SHOWER OR TSTM OVR NRN/NW
COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME. THEN...THU THRU FRI...MODELS SHOW LO
PRES SPINNING OFF THE SE CST. HAVE A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS OVR SRN
AND WRN COUNTIES DURING FRI. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WX AND
ABV NORMAL TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LOWS MAINLY IN THE
MID 50S TO NEAR 60...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE NOW WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...ALL PRECIP
HAS ENDED ACRS THE REGION AND N WINDS 10-15 KT PREVAIL AT THE
COAST. FARTHER INLAND WINDS ARE MUCH LIGHTER...GENLY 5 KT OR LESS.
SKIES HAVE PARTIALLY CLEARED OVER MOST OF THE REGION. PATCHY FOG
OVER SOME INLAND AREAS...BUT GENLY HAS NOT AFFECTED TAF SITES.

MAINLY DRY/VFR TODAY...A SLIGHT CHC FOR A PASSING AFTN SHOWER BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE AT ANY TAF SITE. MAINLY JUST EXPECTING SCT/BKN CU
AT 4 TO 5K FT. SOMEWHAT GUSTY N WINDS WILL STILL BE PSBL AT KORF
AND KECG THROUGH NOON...BECOMING LIGHTER AND TURNING TO THE E/NE
IN THE AFTN...WINDS 10 KT OR LESS ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK: VFR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS INDICATED THROUGH MID
WEEK...NEXT CHC FOR SHOWERS NOT REALLY UNTIL WED AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH N/NE WINDS
TRENDING DOWN TO LESS THAN 20 KT MOST AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TODAY AND WITH NO COLD SURGE WINDS
WILL BECOME RATHER LIGHT BY THIS AFTN AND TEND TO TURN TO THE
E/NE. DESPITE THE DIMINISHING WINDS...SEAS ON THE COAST ARE STILL
ELEVATED TO 6-7 FT NORTH AND 7-9 FT SOUTH. WILL MAINTAIN SCA`S
THROUGH 10 PM FOR COASTAL WATERS N OF CAPE CHARLES...AND INTO
EARLY AM HRS SUNDAY S OF CAPE CHARLES. ALSO KEEPING HEADLINES UP
ACRS THE MOUTH OF THE BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND THROUGH 10 AM TO 1 PM.

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL SUN INTO
WED...AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE WATERS THEN SLIDES OUT TO
SEA. FAIRLY MINIMAL SYNOPTIC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE
TO DAILY SEABREEZES AND SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW UP THE BAY
AT NIGHT (THOUGH SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS).
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT POSSIBLE LATER WED INTO THU COMBINED WITH SFC
LOW OFF THE GA/SC COAST WOULD POTENTIALLY INCREASE WIND SPEEDS
AND SHIFT DIRECTIONS TO THE E/NE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO HIGH SEAS/ONSHORE FLOW
TRAPPING WATER IN THE BAY. DEPARTURES AVG CLOSE TO 1.0 FOOT COMPARED
TO ASTRONOMICAL LEVELS MOST PLACES. HOWEVER...THESE TIDES WILL
REMAIN 0.5 FT OR MORE BELOW MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS SO NO
ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES NECESSARY. FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...DEPARTURES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 0.5 FT OR
LESS BY SUN NIGHT/MON.

EXTENDED HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NC OUTER BANKS THROUGH 7 AM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD/MPR
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LKB/LSA
MARINE...LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



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