Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 060801 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 401 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO VIRGINIA LATER TODAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHWARD AND WILL SPIN OFF OR NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SRN VA/NC COAST...EXTENDING BACK ACROSS EASTERN NC. SFC FRONT NOW NEARLY STATIONARY TO OUR NORTH SITUATED FROM CENTRAL NJ THROUGH SRN PA AND CENTRAL OH. MEANWHILE...SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING OFF THE ATLC COAST OF FLORIDA. FLOW ALOFT IS RATHER MINIMAL OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS WE RESIDE IN WEAK RIDGING IN BETWEEN A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER FLORIDA...A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND ANOTHER OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. RADAR NOW GENLY PRECIP-FREE ACRS THE AREA...THOUGH SKIES REMAIN VARIABLY CLOUDY. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN EARLIER...MAINLY THE N/W SECTIONS OF THE CWA. DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR AN ADSY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. TEMPS GENLY STEADY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LWR 60S THROUGH SUNRISE. FOR TODAY...FRONT TO NORTH IS ALREADY RATHER DIFFUSE AND LOOKS TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. MODELS DO HOWEVER SHOW SOME DECENT INSTABILITY WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING...FAIRLY SIMILAR IN LOCATION TO WHAT OCCURED THIS PAST EVENING FAVORING THE N/NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA. FOR TEMPS, LATEST GUIDANCE NOW FAVORING WHAT HAD BEEN THE WARMER SOLUTIONS IN EXPECTATION OF A SLOWER FRONTAL PROGRESSION...RESULTING IN A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY EARLY AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 80S WEST OF THE BAY...TO THE 70S ON THE ERN SHORE. FRONT WASHES OUT BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE VA/NC BORDER TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, SFC LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA/SE GA TONIGHT. WEAK SFC RIDGING WILL RE- ESTABLISH ITSELF OVERHEAD AND ALLOW FOR A DRY OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LWR 60S. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... ON THU...LITTLE TRIGGER FOR PRECIP...HOWEVER, EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD TO LINGER INTO THU MORNING ESP ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GENERALLY PARTLY SUNNY FARTHER SOUTH AND WILL MAINTAIN A MINIMAL 20% CHC FOR A SHOWER OR TSTM IN THE SOUTH MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. E-NE WINDS WILL RESULT IN HI TEMPS RANGING THRU THE 70S NE AND ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 70S/LWR 80S INLAND. STILL MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF AFOREMENTIONED LOW ALONG THE SE COAST. MODELS STILL HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING THIS SYSTEM...WHICH IS CASTING A BIT OF LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM. THE 12Z/5 GFS CONTINUES TO BRING THE SFC LOW INLAND OF THE SC/NC COAST...WITH THE 12Z/NAM NOW IN CLOSE ENOUGH TO COVER THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ITS SOLUTION IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS AND TAKES THE SURFACE LOW INLAND ACROSS EXTREME NE GA/COASTAL SC BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FOR ITS PART, THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF REMAINS OFFSHORE, BUT HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS IN MOVING A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE SFC LOW...AND EVEN KEEPS THE LOW NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE GONE WITH A GFS WEIGHTED GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR FRIDAY UNTIL MODELS COME INTO A BIT CLOSER AGREEMENT. EITHER WAY, EXPECT FRIDAY TO BE PREDOMINATELY DRY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, BUT SHOULD SEE SOME (MAINLY) DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA (BEST CHC SOUTH OF THE BORDER INTO NC). HIGHS 80-85 INLAND, COOLER U60S TO M70S ALONG THE COAST IN CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH LO PRES SPINNING JUST OFF OR ALNG THE SE OR NC CST FRI NGT INTO MON MORNG. THEN...MODELS SHOW THE LO WEAKENING AND GETTING PUSHED NNE ALNG OR JUST OFF THE VA CST MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE W. THAT FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACRS THE AREA TUE INTO TUE NGT. WILL HAVE 20%-30% POPS FOR SHOWERS OR TSTMS OVR MUCH OF THE REGION FRI NGT THRU MON NGT...DUE TO MOISTURE/LIFT FM THE LO PRES AREA. THEN...HAVE 30%-40% POPS FOR TUE/TUE NGT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE ABV NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS RANGING FM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE REGION...WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AOA 12K FT AGL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT HAS LOCATED OVER SRN PA/OH EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25K FT AGL ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL LOW OFF THE FL PANHANDLE HAVE LIFTED OVER SE VA/NE NC. OTHERWISE...SSW WINDS AOB 10 KT. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO NRN VA WHERE RAINFALL OCCURRED AND SKIES HAVE CLEARED. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES. WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO NRN VA AND THE MD ERN SHORE. DRY SE VA/NE NC. HAVE OPTED TO WAIT TO MENTION IN TAFS UNTIL CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10 KT THIS MORNING...BECOMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SE...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT. SKIES RANGE FROM SCT-BKN WITH DECKS 4-6K FT AGL IN THE NORTH TO SKC IN THE SE. THE BACKDOOR FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURS. LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SE COAST THRU THE WEEKEND...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SE VA/NE NC FRI THRU SUN. && .MARINE... LATEST WEATHER ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGING WWD OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT HAS LOCATED OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RESULT IS SW WINDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KT. WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-3 FT. BACKDOOR FRONT SAGS SWD OVER THE WATERS TODAY...WITH FLOW BECOMING E-SE 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT DISSIPATES NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER TONIGHT WITH FLOW BECOMING NELY AOB 10 KT LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE NE AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS THURS WITH ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A SUBTROPICAL LOW OFF THE SE COAST. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO BE CENTERED OFF THE SC COAST FRIDAY...TRACKING INLAND FRI NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS. SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD TO 3-4 FT FRI...REMAINING 2-4 FT THRU THE WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS AOB 15 KT THIS WEEKEND. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...SAM MARINE...SAM

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