Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 241747 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 147 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE LOW CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...PUSHING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LATEST WEATHER ANALYSIS FEATURES 1020+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. ALOFT, UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT E-NE FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA. TO THE WEST, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE MS VLY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE DAY, AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOSER TO HOME, SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY/TONIGHT, PROVIDING A DRY, BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME AFTN CLOUDS, BUT DIGITAL FORECAST WILL AVG OUT MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MOST. THICKNESS TOOLS LINE UP WELL WITH LATEST GUIDANCE, YIELDING HIGHS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL...U50S TO NR 60 EASTERN SHORE/NRN NECK...L-M 60S ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOCATES FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE SE COASTAL PLAIN TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MID-UPPER CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT. NOT AS COLD...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S N TO LOW/MID 40S SOUTH. INTERIOR MD ERN SHORE LOCALES COULD DROP INTO THE MID 30S...WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DEAMPLIFIES AS IT MOVES INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS SAT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW LOCATES OVER THE OH VALLEY. INCREASING/AMPLIFYING FLOW OVER THE SE CONUS WILL LIFT THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF STATES NWD AS A WARM FRONT. MOISTURE ALSO RETURNS IN EARNEST LATE SAT...COINCIDING WITH BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT. EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL/ERN VA SAT AFTERNOON. POPS REMAIN LIKELY OVER THE AREA...EXCEPT CHANCE OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE. BETTER LIFT FROM THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ARRIVES SAT NIGHT. SRN STREAM ENERGY LIFTING FROM THE GULF STATES SAT NIGHT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LIFTING WARM FRONT AS THE ORIGINAL LOW WEAKENS OVER THE OH VALLEY. A COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENS...WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN CONTINUING THRU SUN MORNING. BEST CHANCES WILL THEN TRANSFER TO THE COAST (ERN VA/NE NC) SUN AFTERNOON. LIFT IS RATHER MODEST...ALONG WITH PWATS ONLY AROUND 1 INCH ACROSS THE REGION. THUS...EXPECT ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY BTWN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF INCH (HIGHEST IN THE SOUTH). COOL/DAMP/CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S (-1 TO -1.5 STD DEV) SAT AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S SAT NIGHT. CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED FROM ERN NY STATE INTO NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ANOTHER UPPER LOW IN PLACE ACRS THE SW CONUS. OVERALL...THIS SOMEWHAT "BLOCKY" PATTERN WILL MAKE FOR SLOW MOVEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LOW TO OUR NE LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGEST FEATURE...AND GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH/UPPER LOW ON MON. LOCAL AREA WILL BE ON BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW SUN NIGHT/MON SO A DRYING TREND WILL COMMENCE. TEMPERATURES MON LOOK TO REMAIN COOLER THAN AVG WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AFTER AM LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 F. WILL CARRY A 20% POP ACRS THE MD ERN SHORE AS THIS AREA WILL BE NE OF THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE. SKIES AVG PARTLY SUNNY MOST AREAS...TRENDING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE NE. AS UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS SHIFTS NE FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS LATER TUE/WED...THE UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN/SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST. MID ATLC REGION LOOKS TO BE LOCATED IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS TUE INTO EARLY WED WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. WILL HAVE DRY CONDITIONS AND PARTLY /MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMAINING COOL WITH HIGHS GENLY REMAINING IN THE 60S...PERHAPS ONLY THE UPPER 50S AT THE ATLC COAST. LOWS AVG IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. EXPECT INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT LATER WED INTO THU...BRINGING OVERRUNNING AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIP STARTING LATER WED AND LASTING INTO THU. GFS/ECMWF NOW DEVELOP A COASTAL SFC LOW BY THU. HAVE POPS IN THE 30-40% RANGE FROM LATER WED THROUGH THU ALTHOUGH STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS THIS IS LATE DAY6/DAY 7. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE 50S. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...GUSTY W AND NW WINDS CONTINUED AT THE TAF SITES EARLY FRIDAY AFTN. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM SATURDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT MOSTLY EASTERLY WINDS. OUTLOOK...RAIN DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS LOWER QUICKLY LATE SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD IFR AS INDICATED BY MOS FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY EVENING OR EARLY MONDAY WHICH CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .MARINE... 1 PM UPDATE...EXTENDED SCA ALL WATERS THROUGH 4 PM AS GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS. SEAS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE IN THE SRN COASTAL WATERS. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING WINDS DOWN QUICKLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. PD OF LO LVL CAA XPCD INTO THE LT MRNG HRS BEFORE WANING THIS AFTN...RESULTING IN NNW WNDS TO SCA (NR 20 KT ON THE BAY/SND...20 TO 25 KT ON THE MUCH OF THE OCN). HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS OVR THE WATERS THROUGH TNGT (W/ CONDS FALLING BELOW SCA SOME TIME IN THE AFTERNOON/EVE). SUB-SCA MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL TNGT THROUGH SAT W/ WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE OHO RIVER VALLEY AND PASSES ACROSS VA AND OFFSHORE SUNDAY. VARIABLE WINDS SUNDAY BECOME NNW SUN AFTN/EVE W/ SPEEDS INCRSG TO PSBL SCA...ESP CNTRL/SRN OCN WATERS...AND NR THE LWR BAY...AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE. THOSE ENHANCED WNDS CONT SUN NGT BEFORE WANING EARLY NEXT WK. && .FIRE WEATHER... COOL DRY AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION TDA. MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 20-30 PCT...WITH NWLY WINDS 10-20 MPH GUSTING TO 20-30 MPH. STRONGEST GUSTS EXPECTED NORTH OF THE RIC METRO OVER TO THE NRN NECK AND LWR ERN SHORE. FUELS HAVE HAD ANOTHER DAY TO DRY...BUT STILL REMAIN MARGINAL. MOST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. AFTER COORDINATION WITH VICC AND SURROUNDING OFFICES, HAVE ISSUED AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER FOR THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE RIC METRO OVER TO THE NORTHERN NECK AND LWR EASTERN SHORE (MD/VA). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630>634-638-650-652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS/MAM SHORT TERM...MAS/SAM LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...LSA MARINE...ALB/LKB/LSA FIRE WEATHER...

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