Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 020107 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 907 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... CLR SKIES AND LGHT WNDS RESULTING IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVE AS TMPS HAVE DROPPED SOME 10-15 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS SINCE SS. GIVEN THE CRNT DP TMPS...LOWS SHUD DROP INTO THE M30S MOST AREAS XCPT L30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS ALONG THE RT 460 CORRIDOR EAST OF PTB AND INLAND SECTIONS OF THE ERN SHORE. A FROST ADSY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE ZONES THAT HAVE STARTED THE GROWING SEASON TODAY (APRIL 1ST). THIS INCLUDES THE NE NC COUNTIES FROM CHOWAN EAST TO THE ATLC COAST / CHESAPEAKE / VA BEACH. KEPT NORFOLK AND COASTAL/OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK OUT OF IT DUE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS W/ A FEW KT OF WIND ANTICIPATED. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT COUNTIES IN THE ADSY ALONG THE SOUND AND ALONG THE ATLC COAST (VA BEACH OCEANFRONT) WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND FROST IS UNLIKELY...JUST THAT WE DO NOT HAVE THE ABILITY TO ISSUE POLYGON-BASED FROST ADVISORIES. PATCHY FROST ALSO POSSIBLE FARTHER INLAND IN NC AND VA...BUT THESE ZONES DO NOT START THE GROWING SEASON UNTIL APRIL 8TH OR LATER. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE BY MID/LATE THUS MORNING AND A WX DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH AROUND 70 F UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE L/M60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. IN GENERAL...MODELS RMN SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND THE NRN STREAM AND SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. WILL CONT W/ HIGHEST POPS ON FRI TO NNW 1/3RD OF FA BY EARLY FRI AM THROUGH FRI AFTN. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLY AS WARM AS 60F IN A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE M/U70S TO AROUND 80F (U60S/L70S ON THE ERN SHORE). MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRI NIGHT...AS THE ACTUAL FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA FROM NW TO SE FROM 06-12Z. NOT A LONG PERIOD OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS FRONT HOWEVER...AND GIVEN SOME CONTINUED MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH CHC RANGE FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT LIKELY ACRS THE NORTH. LOWS FRI NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S. DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM NW TO SE SAT MORNING...AND MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 15Z. TEMPS ALOFT COOL...BUT A DOWNSLOPE WNW FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS MAINLY 60-65 F UNDER AFTN SUNSHINE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND INTO THE SERN STATES/MID ATLANTIC REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...SLIDING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUN EVENING. ASIDE FROM SOME BREEZY NW WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SAT NIGHT...THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL EXPERIENCE RELATIVELY QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BEGIN AT TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON SUN (UPPER 50S TO LOW-MID 60S) AND THEN WARM 3-5 DEGREES EACH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S (MID-UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST) BY TUE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL EXPERIENCE THE SAME GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT NIGHT...WARMING ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES EACH NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 50S FORECAST FOR TUE NIGHT. TIMING VARIES REGARDING WHEN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. THE GFS MODEL BRINGS INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA MON EVENING THROUGH WED...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL DOES NOT BRING RAIN TO THE AREA UNTIL WED. WENT WITH A LONG RANGE MODEL BLEND TO AVERAGE OUT RAIN CHANCES DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMEFRAME. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... CALM TO LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH SLIPS OFF THE COAST FOR THURSDAY WITH GUSTY S/SW WINDS BY MIDDAY. LOW DEW POINTS WILL PREVENT FOG FORMATION FOR THURSDAY MORNING. A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS INDICATED WITH ONLY SCT HIGH CLOUDS. OUTLOOK...THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE A DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY. && .MARINE... SCA FLAGS CANCELLED FOR SRN COASTAL WATERS NOW THAT SEAS ARE FINALLY FALLING BELOW 5FT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT NLY WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT (AOB 10KT). HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST BY THU AFTN AND THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BREEZY S WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE IN NRN WATERS THU AFTN AND THEN BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS ALL WATERS BY THU EVENING. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25KT (UP TO 30 KT IN NRN COASTAL WATERS). A NEW ROUND OF SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND AND ALL OF CHES BAY BEGINNING THU AFTN THROUGH AT LEAST FRI AFTN. COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER MAY BRIEFLY REACH SCA GUSTS OF 25KT THU EVENING...BUT THE DURATION ANTICIPATED IS NOT LONG ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY SCA FLAGS ATTM. WAVES WILL AVERAGE 2-3FT THU AFTN THROUGH THU NIGHT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3FT...BUILDING TO 3-5FT NRN COASTAL WATERS THU EVENING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS ON FRI AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS TIGHTEN FURTHER WITH SW WINDS AVERAGING 20KT WITH GUSTS OF 25-30KT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WAVES AVERAGE 3-4FT AND SEAS BUILD TO 3-5FT ALL COASTAL WATERS BY EARLY FRI EVENING. THE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...RESULTING IN A QUICK SURGE OF WINDS/SEAS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONDITIONS REMAIN WELL-ROOTED IN SCA FLAGS ON SAT IN THE POST-FRONT ENVIRONMENT AS WINDS/GUSTS BECOME NWLY AND SEAS AVERAGE 4-6FT NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES AND 3-5FT SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. ONGOING SCA FLAGS FROM THU WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH SAT...AND ANY WATERS NOT WITHIN SCA FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE IN THEM BY EARLY FRI MORNING (BEGINNING ROUGHLY AROUND DAYBREAK). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION BY SAT EVENING AND ALL CONDITIONS (WINDS/WAVES/SEAS) ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS SUN THROUGH EARLY MON WITH SLY WINDS REMAINING AOB 15KT. && .FIRE WEATHER... THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER THREAT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS DROPPING BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ015>017- 031-032. VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ097-098. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...BMD/SAM AVIATION...LSA MARINE...BMD FIRE WEATHER...AKQ

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