Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 061959 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 359 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AND WILL SPIN OFF OR NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LATEST RDR LATE THIS AFTN SHOWED SCTD SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS OVR NRN/NW VA AND DRIFTING SSE. THESE SHOWERS AND MAYBE A TSTM OR TWO COULD MOVE INTO OUR NRN/NW COUNTIES DURING THIS EVENG. HAVE 30%-50% POPS IN THESE AREAS...DIMINISHING TO SLGT CHC (20%) OR 14%-10% AS YOU GO SE TWD EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC. VERY LITTLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PRESENT...SO SEVERE WX IS UNLIKELY. BUT...COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN ANY TSTM...DUE TO SLOW OVERALL STORM MOVEMENT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INTO THE 1.25" TO 1.50" RANGE. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY TNGT WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... ON THU...LITTLE TRIGGER FOR PRECIP...HOWEVER, EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD TO LINGER INTO THU MORNING ESP ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GENERALLY PARTLY SUNNY FARTHER SOUTH AND WILL MAINTAIN A MINIMAL 20% CHC FOR A SHOWER OR TSTM IN THE SOUTH MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. E-NE WINDS WILL RESULT IN HI TEMPS RANGING THRU THE 70S NE (60S AT OCEAN CITY) AND ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 70S/LWR 80S INLAND. STILL MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF AFOREMENTIONED LOW OFF THE FL COAST. WEAK FLOW/UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE SE COAST FRI/SAT MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST...SLOW MOVEMENT AS THE LOW BECOMES STACKED WITH HEIGHT. THE LATEST 00Z/6 MODELS ARE INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT NOW IN GENERAL TRACK...WITH THE SFC LOW CENTERED OFF THE SC COAST 12Z/FRI AND MOVING VERY LITTLE TO A POSITION ALONG THE SC/SE NC COAST AS OF 12Z/SAT. FOR AKQ CWA...WE LOOK TO BE ON NRN FRINGE...WITH OCCASIONAL WAVES OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND MODEST LIFT AFFECTING MAINLY THE SRN 1/2 OF THE CWA FRI/SAT. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...THOUGH STILL KEEPING THEM IN THE CHC RANGE...TO 30-50% OVER INTERIOR SRN VA AND NE NC...TAPERED TO 20% OR LESS OVER THE N/NE. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER 80S WELL INLAND BOTH DAYS. LOWS GET A TAD WARMER AS DEW PTS RISE...PRIMARILY 60-65 F (ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 50S STILL POSSIBLE ACRS THE NORTH). && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FOR CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST HAS TO DO WITH LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE SE COAST...ITS EVENTUAL TRACK...AND HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT IT HAS ON THE LOCAL AREA. STAYED CLOSE TO WPC/NHC FORECASTS FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND/FIRST OF NEXT WEEK WHICH BRINGS THE CENTER OF THE LOW UP INTO EASTERN NC ON MONDAY...THEN OFF THE VA COAST ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES OVER THE LOCAL AREA SUN- TUE...THEN DRY AGAIN NEXT WED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS THROUGH TUE IN THE 80S...EXCEPT COOLER 70S IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS IN THE 60S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXPECT FOR SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS LEFT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND CIRRUS FROM LOW OFF THE FL COAST. FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS...BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT IS DEVELOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AND COULD SLIDE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING. RIC IS THE MOST FAVOR LOCATION FOR CONVECTION...BUT WITH MODELS SHOWING THAT ANYTHING THAT FORMS QUICKLY WEAKENS...HAVE ELECTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF STORMS WITH JUST A 20 - 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIP FALLING. THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT KEEPING SOME MID DECK CLOUDS FROM RIC-SBY. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...THE REGION IS IN THE SUBSIDENCE REGION FROM THE LOW OFF THE COAST SO OUTSIDE OF SOME THICKENING CIRRUS...NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS. THE WINDS ARE TURNING SOME E TO SE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST AND THE LOW TO THE SOUTH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH. BUT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS A BACKDOOR FRONT FALLS APART AS IT MOVE INTO VA AND THE LOW TO THE SOUTH STRENGTHENS. SO THE FLOW WILL BECOME E - NE BUT ANY CEILINGS SHOULD BE VFR. LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SE COAST THRU THE COMING WEEKEND...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SE VA/NE NC FRI THRU SUN. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT OVER THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC BY TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. LIGHT SE FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE E-NE TONIGHT...THEN REMAINS LIGHT E ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY OFF THE SE COAST IS EXPECTED TO ONLY SLOWLY MEANDER UP THE CAROLINA COAST THRU MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS. RIGHT NOW...SEAS ARE ONLY FORECAST TO BUILD TO 3-4 FT ON FRI...REMAINING 2-4 FT THRU THE WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...ESS MARINE...JDM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.