Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 061750 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 150 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO VIRGINIA LATER TODAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHWARD AND WILL SPIN OFF OR NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SRN VA/NC COAST...EXTENDING BACK ACROSS EASTERN NC. SFC FRONT WAS NOW SITUATED ACRS NRN VA. MEANWHILE...SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING OFF THE ATLC COAST OF FLORIDA. FLOW ALOFT IS RATHER MINIMAL OVER THE LOCAL AREA...AS WE RESIDE IN WEAK RIDGING IN BETWEEN A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER FLORIDA...A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND ANOTHER OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. FOR THIS AFTN...FRONT TO NORTH IS ALREADY RATHER DIFFUSE AND LOOKS TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. MODELS DO HOWEVER SHOW SOME DECENT INSTABILITY WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING...FAIRLY SIMILAR IN LOCATION TO WHAT OCCURRED THIS PAST EVENING FAVORING THE N/NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA...WHERE POPS BY LATE AFTN ARE IN THE 30-50% RANGE. POPS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST HAVE GENLY BEEN CAPPED AT 20-30% OR LOWER...DUE TO WEAKER LIFT AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE CONDS. LIKE YESTERDAY...VERY LITTLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PRESENT SO SEVERE WX IS UNLIKELY. DID INCLUDE A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO OVER NW 1/3 OF THE CWA DUE TO SLOW OVERALL STORM MOVEMENT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INTO THE 1.25" TO 1.50" RANGE. FOR TEMPS...LATEST GUIDANCE NOW FAVORING WHAT HAD BEEN THE WARMER SOLUTIONS IN EXPECTATION OF A SLOWER FRONTAL PROGRESSION...RESULTING IN A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 80S WEST OF THE BAY...TO THE 70S ON THE ERN SHORE. FRONT WASHES OUT BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE VA/NC BORDER TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SFC LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA/SE GA TONIGHT. WEAK SFC RIDGING WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVERHEAD AND ALLOW FOR A DRY OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LWR 60S. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... ON THU...LITTLE TRIGGER FOR PRECIP...HOWEVER, EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD TO LINGER INTO THU MORNING ESP ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GENERALLY PARTLY SUNNY FARTHER SOUTH AND WILL MAINTAIN A MINIMAL 20% CHC FOR A SHOWER OR TSTM IN THE SOUTH MAINLY IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. E-NE WINDS WILL RESULT IN HI TEMPS RANGING THRU THE 70S NE (60S AT OCEAN CITY) AND ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 70S/LWR 80S INLAND. STILL MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF AFOREMENTIONED LOW OFF THE FL COAST. WEAK FLOW/UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE SE COAST FRI/SAT MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST...SLOW MOVEMENT AS THE LOW BECOMES STACKED WITH HEIGHT. THE LATEST 00Z/6 MODELS ARE INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT NOW IN GENERAL TRACK...WITH THE SFC LOW CENTERED OFF THE SC COAST 12Z/FRI AND MOVING VERY LITTLE TO A POSITION ALONG THE SC/SE NC COAST AS OF 12Z/SAT. FOR AKQ CWA...WE LOOK TO BE ON NRN FRINGE...WITH OCCASIONAL WAVES OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND MODEST LIFT AFFECTING MAINLY THE SRN 1/2 OF THE CWA FRI/SAT. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...THOUGH STILL KEEPING THEM IN THE CHC RANGE...TO 30-50% OVER INTERIOR SRN VA AND NE NC...TAPERED TO 20% OR LESS OVER THE N/NE. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER 80S WELL INLAND BOTH DAYS. LOWS GET A TAD WARMER AS DEW PTS RISE...PRIMARILY 60-65 F (ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 50S STILL POSSIBLE ACRS THE NORTH). && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MODELS SHOW THE LOW WEAKENING AND GETTING PUSHED NNE ALNG OR JUST OFF THE VA CST BY MON/ MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE W. THAT FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACRS THE AREA TUE INTO TUE NGT. WILL HAVE 20%-50% POPS FOR SHOWERS OR TSTMS OVR MUCH OF THE REGION SAT NIGHT THRU MON NGT...DUE TO MOISTURE/LIFT FM THE LO PRES AREA. THEN...HAVE 30%-40% POPS FOR TUE/TUE NGT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE ABV NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD...THOUGH HIGHS WILL BE KEPT DONW TO SOME EXTENT DUE TO THE FAIRLY HUMID CONDITIONS AND E/SE FLOW OFF WATERS THAT ARE STILL FAIRLY COOL. HIGHS GENLY AVG INTO THE LWR 80S INLAND TO 75-80 F NEAR THE COAST. LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXPECT FOR SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS LEFT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND CIRRUS FROM LOW OFF THE FL COAST. FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS...BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT IS DEVELOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AND COULD SLIDE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING. RIC IS THE MOST FAVOR LOCATION FOR CONVECTION...BUT WITH MODELS SHOWING THAT ANYTHING THAT FORMS QUICKLY WEAKENS...HAVE ELECTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF STORMS WITH JUST A 20 - 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIP FALLING. THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT KEEPING SOME MID DECK CLOUDS FROM RIC-SBY. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...THE REGION IS IN THE SUBSIDENCE REGION FROM THE LOW OFF THE COAST SO OUTSIDE OF SOME THICKENING CIRRUS...NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS. THE WINDS ARE TURNING SOME E TO SE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST AND THE LOW TO THE SOUTH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH. BUT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS A BACKDOOR FRONT FALLS APART AS IT MOVE INTO VA AND THE LOW TO THE SOUTH STRENGTHENS. SO THE FLOW WILL BECOME E - NE BUT ANY CEILINGS SHOULD BE VFR. LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SE COAST THRU THE COMING WEEKEND...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SE VA/NE NC FRI THRU SUN. && .MARINE... LATEST WEATHER ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGING WWD OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT HAS LOCATED OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RESULT IS SW WINDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KT. WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-3 FT. BACKDOOR FRONT SAGS SWD OVER THE WATERS TODAY...WITH FLOW BECOMING E-SE 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT DISSIPATES NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER TONIGHT WITH FLOW BECOMING NELY AOB 10 KT LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE NE AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS THURS WITH ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A SUBTROPICAL LOW OFF THE SE COAST. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO BE CENTERED OFF THE SC COAST FRIDAY...TRACKING INLAND FRI NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS. SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD TO 3-4 FT FRI...REMAINING 2-4 FT THRU THE WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS AOB 15 KT THIS WEEKEND. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB NEAR TERM...LKB/TMG SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...ESS MARINE...SAM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.