Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 010901 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 501 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...AND CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... CDFNT NOW WELL E AND S OF THE FA. COOLER/DRY AIR SPREADING INTO THE RGN FM THE NNW. SFC HI PRES INVOF ERN LAKES/OH VLY WILL BE SLOLY BUILDING INTO THE RGN TDA. NNE WNDS RMNG GUSTY THIS MRNG...ESP INVOF ERN PORTION OF FA...THEN WANING THEREAFTER. SCT- BKN SC INVOF CST ATTM AT LITTLE BIT LONGER...OTRW MNLY SKC TDA. HI TEMPS IN THE L/M60S FOR INTERIOR SRN VA/NE NC AND IN THE L/M50S CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN THE AFTN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE TNGT/THU MRNG. LGT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS MNLY IN THE L/M30S MOST INLAND PLACES TO ARND 40F AT THE IMMEDIATE CST. WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WX DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE L70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE L/M60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A MORE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. IN GENERAL...MODELS RMN SLOWER AT BRINGING IN DEEP MOISTURE AND THE NRN STREAM AND SRN STREAM ARE SLOWER TO PHASE. WILL CONT W/ HIGHEST POPS ON FRI TO NNW 1/3RD OF FA BY LT TNGT THROUGH FRI. VERY MILD THU NIGHT IN SSW FLOW AND INCRAESING CLOUDS...LOWS IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLY AS WARM AS 60F IN A FEW SPOTS. WARM/VARIABLY CLOUDY FRI WITH 20-30% CHC FOR -SHRA AND PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY TSTMS AS THE SFC FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE M/U70S...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO 80F IF ENOUGH SUN CAN PREVAIL (U60S/L70S ON THE ERN SHORE). MAIN RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRI NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRI NIGHT...THEN OFF THE CST SAT MRNG. STILL SOME MINOR SPATIAL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT ASSOCIATED SRN STREAM ENERGY AND THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOSTLY NOW WITH HOW QUICK PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST SAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FRI NIGHT...EXCEPT THE SE. THETA-E ADVECTION AND MILD TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY FRI EVENING. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SHARPENING LAPSE RATES AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI EVENING. COLD FRONT EXITS THE COAST SAT MRNG AS THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFT INTO THE NE STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SAT AFTN...REMAINING OVER THE REGION THRU SUN. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SAT-SUN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SERN CANADA THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE FROM THE GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK NWD INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WLY FLOW CROSS THE REGION. BEGIN TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE- LOW END CHANCE POPS TUES-TUES NIGHT. HIGHS MON IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. HIGHS TUES IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREA. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LO PRES WILL MOVE FARTHER ENE INTO THE NRN ATLC THIS MORNG...WHILE HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA FM THE NW. OTHER THAN SCT TO BKN SC (2000-3000 FT) AT SBY EARLY THIS MORNG...EXPECT ONLY SCT CI AND VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THU MORNG. N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT AND GUSTY EXPECTED THRU MIDDAY TODAY...THEN TURNING TO THE NE AND SE OR S LATER TODAY INTO THU MORNG WHILE BECOMING LIGHT. OUTLOOK...HI PRES MOVES OFF THE CST ON THU...AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FM THE NW. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT MORNG...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACRS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. && .MARINE... HI PRES WILL BLD INTO THE AREA FM THE NW TODAY...THEN WILL SLIDE OFF THE CST ON THU. STRONG N OR NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT WILL OCCUR THRU THIS MORNG. SEAS WILL BLD TO 3 TO 5 FT OVR THE CSTL WTRS...AND WAVES WILL BLD TO 3 TO 4 FT OVR THE CHES BAY. THUS...SCA`S WILL REMAIN UP OVR THE WTRS UNTIL 10 AM OR NOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG...AS THE HI BLDS RIGHT OVR THE WTRS. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE LATER TNGT AND THU...WITH FLOW RETURNING TO THE S AOB 15 KT. SLY WINDS INCREASE THU...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THURS-THURS EVENING WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT. SEAS IN THE NRN WATERS ALSO PROGGED TO REACH 5 FT. FLOW BECOMES SW FRI...AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. FRONT FINALLY CROSSES THE WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNG. && .CLIMATE... THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT RICHMOND FOR TUESDAY MARCH 31ST WILL BE REVIEWED TODAY. A SPIKE IN THE TEMPERATURE TO 79 DEGREES OCCURRED AROUND 827 PM DEGREES AS SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS MOVED ACROSS THE AIRPORT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ650-652-654- 656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...TMG MARINE...TMG CLIMATE...

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