Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 021933 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 333 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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SNDGS SHOW AIRMASS BASICALLY TO DRY TO SPRT MUCH IF ANY SHWR ACTIVITY THIS AFTRN...SO DECIDED TO DROP POPS THRU 00Z. HIGH PRS GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVR THE MTS DUE TO THE SLOW EWRD MOVNMNT OF THE CSTL LOW. XPCT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HTNG AFTR SUNSET. SOME PTCHY FOG PSBL WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR AFTR MIDNITE...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN LHIS MORN. ANTHR COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M40S-L50S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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OCEAN LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW RIDGE AXIS TO BUILD OVR THE REGION SUNDAY THEN SET UP SHOP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THRU TUE. LGT AND VRBL WNDS SUN BECOMES SW MON & TUE DUE TO RETURN FLOW. THIS APPREARS TO BE A DECENT SETUP FOR DAILY SEA BREEZES TO DVLP. GFS IS FASTER WITH BRINGING IN PCPN CHCS TO NWRN PIEDMONT CNTYS BY LATE TUE. KEPT TUE DRY FOR NOW. A SLOW WRMG XPCTD. HIGHS SUN 75-80 XCPT 65-70 AT THE BEACHES. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS MON/TUE U70S-L80S XCPT 65-70 AT THE BEACHES. LOWS MON NITE 55-60.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HI PRES WILL BE CNTRD OFF THE MID ATLC CST TUE...MAINTAINING DRY WX AND ABV NORMAL TEMPS. 12Z GFS/ECMWF BOTH HINT AT A BACKDOOR FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE REGION WED INTO THU. FOR NOW...HAVE JUST A SLGT CHC OF A SHOWER OR TSTM OVR NRN/NW COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME. THEN...THU THRU FRI...MODELS SHOW LO PRES SPINNING OFF THE SE CST. HAVE A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS OVR SRN AND WRN COUNTIES DURING FRI. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WX AND ABV NORMAL TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOW PRESSURE NOW WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...WITH A SCT- BKN CU CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE TIDEWATER AND CENTRAL VA BETWEEN 4KFT - 5KFT. WITH LOSS OF HEATING EVENING SKIES WILL CLEAR AROUND SUNSET AND REMAIN CLEAR INTO SUNDAY. WIND HAVE DECREASED TO GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 KT. WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE N BUT DUE TO THE RELAXED PRES GRADIANT BAY EFFECT WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN EAST WINDS AT PHF. CLEAR AND BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK: VFR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS INDICATED THROUGH EARLY TO MID WEEK...NEXT CHC FOR SHOWERS NOT REALLY UNTIL WED AFTN. && .MARINE... HAVE EXTENDED FOR SCA FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR MARGINAL WAVES. SIG WAVE HEIGHT IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY IS JUST UNDER 4 FT WITH MAX WAVES NEAR 6 FT. WAVES SHOULD DECREASE TO 3 FT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN EASTERLY SWELL DIRECTION. LOW PRESSURE HAS PULLED WELL WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH NW TO NE WINDS TRENDING DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE DIMINISHING WINDS...SEAS ON THE COAST ARE STILL ELEVATED TO 4-6 FT NORTH AND 5-7 FT SOUTH. WILL MAINTAIN SCA`S THROUGH 10 PM FOR COASTAL WATERS N OF CAPE CHARLES...AND INTO EARLY AM HRS SUNDAY S OF CAPE CHARLES. ALSO KEEPING HEADLINES UP ACRS THE MOUTH OF THE BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND THROUGH 10 AM TO 1 PM. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL SUN INTO WED...AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE WATERS THEN SLIDES OUT TO SEA. FAIRLY MINIMAL SYNOPTIC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO DAILY SEABREEZES AND SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW UP THE BAY AT NIGHT (THOUGH SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS). BACKDOOR COLD FRONT POSSIBLE LATER WED INTO THU COMBINED WITH SFC LOW OFF THE GA/SC COAST WOULD POTENTIALLY INCREASE WIND SPEEDS AND SHIFT DIRECTIONS TO THE E/NE. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652-654. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...JAO MARINE...TMG

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