Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 272006 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 406 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. STRONG UPPER LOW ALOFT CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF MAINE...BUT EXTENDING WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WV SATELLITE REVEALS A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DIVING SE THROUGH WV...AND THIS IS PROGGED TO PUSH SSE THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SKIES HAVE BECOME VARIABLY CLOUDY ACRS THE LOCAL AREA...TEMPORARILY MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA. THE FORCING THAT MOVES THROUGH INTO THE EVENING HRS MAY BE ENOUGH TO SET OFF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DESPITE TEMP/DEW PT DEPRESSIONS ON THE ORDER OF 25-30 DEGREES. SEEMS LIKE MOST FAVORABLE REGION WOULD STILL BE ACRS THE NORTH AND EAST...AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY OVER THE SW 1/2 OF THE CWA. VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOS MAINLY 40-45 F...A FEW UPPER 30S POSSIBLE INTERIOR VA...TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 F IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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S/W WILL BE SHEARED OUT/SSE OF THE REGION ON TUE...SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LESS AFTN CU DEVELOPMENT THAN MON. HIGHS WILL GET A LITTLE WARMER...THOUGH REMAIN ABOUT 5 DEG BELOW AVG...MID 60S NEAR THE COAST TO UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 F WELL INLAND. SFC HI PRES THEN WEAKENS/DRIFT OFF THE CST INTO WED. LO PRES EXITING SCNTRL CONUS TUE/TUE NGT BEGINS TO TRACK THROUGH THE GULF CST STATES ON WED...BRINGING GRADUAL INCRS IN CLDNS/MOISTURE INTO THE MID ATLC RGN. MDLS CONT TO HOLD OFF MOST OF ANY SGFNT PCPN UNTIL LT WED. WILL MAINTAIN WILL MAINTAIN 30-50% POPS WED AFTN SW...DRY NE. HI TEMPS WED FM THE M60S SW TO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ELSW. DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES IN FROM SSW TO NNE WED NIGHT...WITH BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRINGING WHAT LOOKS TO BE A GOOD OVERRUNNING EVENT LATER WED NIGHT/THU MORNING TO AT LEAST THE SRN 1/2 OF THE CWA. BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY SOUTH...HIGH CHC NORTH LATER WED NIGHT. LOWS MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. STRONG UPPER LOW NOW PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SE STATES ON THU...AS SFC LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE NC COAST. BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF WARRANTS LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS THU...ALTHOUGH NOT NECESSARILY GOING TO RAIN ALL DAY AS TRACK OF UPPER LOW WILL MAKE UNCERTAINTY FAIRLY HIGH AS TO QPF AMOUNTS. COOLER/MAINLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LWR-MID 60S.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THE UPPER LOW TRAVERSES THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT THEN PUSHES WELL OUT TO SEA BY LATE FRIDAY. SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN AREAS FRIDAY MORNING/MIDDAY...BEFORE FINALLY ENDING LATE FRI AFTN OR EVE. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS (60%) MOST AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SOLID CHC POPS (30-40%) ON FRIDAY. DRY WX THEN RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AND AN H5 RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S THU/FRI NIGHTS...WARMING INTO MID/UPR 50S BY NEXT SUN/MON NIGHTS. HIGHS FRIDAY FROM THE LOW 60S EASTERN SHORE TO THE UPR 60S FAR SW ZONES. HIGH TEMPS WARM BY NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE 70S...WITH LOW 80S POSSIBLE INLAND NEXT MONDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 18Z...VSBL STLT SHOWED INCREASING CLOUD COVER SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WITH BASES OF 5 TO 8K FT. A DEEP SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS APPROACHING FROM THE N/NW. MOST OF THIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD CLEAR NEAR SUNSET DUE TO LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. N/NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AT TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST TUESDAY. DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA SHOULD KEEP THE SKY MOSTLY CLEAR. OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO WEDNESDAY WITH DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS. A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN OVER SRN VA AND NC. RAIN IS FORECAST TO END ON FRIDAY. PERIODS OF IFR WILL BE PSBL DURING THIS EVENT. DRY WEATHER RETURNS ONCE AGAIN BY SATURDAY. && .MARINE...
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LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO THE LOCAL AREA BY THIS EVENING AND LASTING THRU TUES MORNING. SCA`S REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL WATERS DURING THIS TIME. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT ON THE BAY TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5 FT ON THE OCEAN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUE AFTN THRU WED NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS IS LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS THU/FRI AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ635>638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-654-656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...LSA MARINE...JDM

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