Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 030724 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 324 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THEN BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS IS LOCATED OVER THE ERN CONUS FROM WRN NY/PA DOWN TO THE FL PANHANDLE. THE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY... RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S INLAND AND IN THE LOW-MID 70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST (EXCEPT ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE WHERE HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 60S DUE TO SOUTH WINDS). FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AXIS STRADDLES THE ERN US COASTLINE AND ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME SWLY BUT LIGHT. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST (OR ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS).
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY BUT FLATTENS OUT IN THE PROCESS...KEEPING A MORE DOMINANT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A RELATIVELY FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NRN VA/DELMARVA AREAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LIFTING MECHANISMS AND MOISTURE FIELDS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT...HOWEVER A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING (MAINLY ACROSS THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE). IF THERE IS ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY PRESENT...A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A WARMING TREND WILL PERSIST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS ON MON/TUE 80-85...MID- UPPER 70S IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS MON/TUE NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SFC HI PRES WILL BE CNTRD WELL OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED MORNG... MAINTAINING DRY WX. A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY POSSIBLY DROP INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER WED THRU THU. FOR NOW...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLGT CHC OF A SHOWER OR TSTM OVR NRN AND WRN COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME. THEN...THU NGT THRU SAT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LO PRES SPINNING SOMEWHERE OFF THE SE CST. HAVE A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVR SRN COUNTIES THU NGT THRU FRI NGT...THEN A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS OVR MOST OF THE AREA ON SAT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WX WILL PREVAIL WITH ABV NORMAL TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACRS THE REGION AS OF 06Z...WINDS GENLY CALM OR LIGHT S/SW. ADDED A TEMPO GROUP AT KECG FOR MVFR VSBY IN SHALLOW GROUND FOG (DUE TO HIGHER RH AND CALM CONDS THERE). KEPT ANY MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE OTHER SITES WITH GREATER TEMP/DEW PT SPREADS AND SOME LIGHT WINDS. A LIGHT W/SW FLOW TO PREVAIL TODAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WEAK SYNOPTIC PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICALLY CONDUCIVE TO WINDS SHIFTING ONSHORE AT THE COAST IN THE AFTN SO HAVE FORECAST WINDS TURNING NE AT KORF (SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT ALL AREAS). LIGHT S/SW FLOW AGAIN TONIGHT WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN S/SW FLOW ON MON. OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS INDICATED THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTN THROUGH THURSDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... AS OF 1 AM...MAINTAINING SCA`S ON THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 4 AM FOR NORTHERN WATERS...AND EXTENDED THROUGH 7 AM FOR SRN WATERS BASED ON LATEST OBS/TRENDS. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL LATER TODAY INTO WED...AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE WATERS THEN SLIDES OUT TO SEA. FAIRLY MINIMAL SYNOPTIC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO DAILY SEABREEZES AND SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW UP THE BAY AT NIGHT (THOUGH SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS). BACKDOOR COLD FRONT POSSIBLE LATER WED INTO THU COMBINED WITH SFC LOW OFF THE GA/SC CST WOULD POTENTIALLY INCREASE WIND SPEEDS AND SHIFT DIRECTIONS TO THE E/NE. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650- 652-654. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ656- 658.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD NEAR TERM...BMD SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...LKB/LSA MARINE...LKB

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.