Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 171857 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 257 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY...THEN SHIFTS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SKY HAS AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARED OVR MOST OF THE FA THIS AFTN. INITIAL WK TROUGH ALOFT HAS MOVED OFF THE CST. A SECOND ONE NOW NW OF THE FA (AS EVIDENCED BY BKN-OVC CLDNS AND ISOLD SHRAS) WILL BE APPROACHING THIS EVE...CROSSING THE FA OVRNGT. WILL HAVE VRB CLDS W/ SLGT CHC-LO CHC POPS OVR THE FA. ADDITIONALLY...AN AREA OF MOISTURE WILL BE PASSING BY JUST TO THE S...THOUGH XPCG MOST OF ANY RA FM THAT SYS TO STAY JUST S IN CAROLINAS. CONTG MENTION OF LO CLDS/PATCHY FOG AFT MDNGT GIVEN LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE AND LGT WNDS. LO TEMPS IN THE 50S. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... BECOMING A NICE DAY ON SAT (AFT ANY LO CLDS/FOG DISSIPATES). WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MSTLY SUNNY CONDS N...PARTLY SUNNY S. AGAIN...THERE MAY BE SCT RA OVR THE CAROLINAS...STAYING S OF THE FA. HI TEMPS M-U70S ALONG THE COAST (XCP NR 70F RIGHT AT THE BEACHES) TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND. SFC HI PRES BUILDS S ACRS THE RGN SAT NGT SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A N-NE DRCTN. DRY/COOLER WITH LO TEMPS IN THE U40S N TO THE L-M50S S. HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CST SUN MRNG W/ LO LVL FLO BECOMING ESE. MEANWHILE...LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING TWD THE LWR GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TWD THE MDATLC RGN. STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN INCRSG CLDNS XPCD MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FM W-E). LATEST MDLS GENERALLY HOLDING SERVE WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF ANY RA. RA MAY REACH THE BAY BY EVE...WILL HAVE 30-60% POPS E-W FM THERE. RIGHT AT THE CST...KEEPING POPS AOB 14%. HI TEMPS FM THE U60S/ARND 70F W OF I95 AND RIGHT AT THE BEACHES...TO THE L/M70S ELSW. SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NGT AS WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PDS OF MDT/HVY RA...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED) THUNDER. THE AREA OF RA XPCD TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/ TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FM THE W BY LT MON AFTN (PTNTLLY LEADING TO SCT SHRAS/TSTMS). OTRW...VRB CLDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HI TEMPS L/M70S E...U70S-NR 80F W. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRECIP CHANCES SUN NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A WARM FRONT STARTS SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MDT TO LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS PSBL SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE PROGGED OMEGA AND THETA E ADVCTN. LOWS IN THE MID 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE. PRECIP DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL WRAPAROUND MOISTURE INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS MON AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS TUE/WED GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S. LOWS TUE/WED NIGHTS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LIGHT DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND THEN OUT TO SEA ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...THERE ARE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA INVOF A WEAK TROUGH PASSING BY JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH VFR CIGS/VIS. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOST TAF SITES BECOMING SATURATED AT THE SFC BTWN 18/0600-1200Z...A TECHNIQUE USED IN BUFKIT INDICATES THAT LOW CLOUDS ARE FAVORED OVER FOG. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED SCT LOW CLOUDS AT ALL TAF SITES (EXCEPT KRIC) AFTER 18/0800Z AND KEPT ANY FOG MENTION AT OR ABOVE 4SM. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW-N TONIGHT AND SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE SW SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED SUN EVENING. EXPECT STEADY RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ALONG THE WARM FRONT SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING AND MORE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY PRECIPITATION WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE MON AFTN INTO MON EVENING. PERIODS OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON EVENING. && .MARINE... SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANZ658 THRU THIS EVENING FOR SEAS NEAR 5 FT...ESPECIALLY OUT AROUND 20 NM. TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... ANTICIPATE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT S-SE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT NORTHERLY SAT THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE SAT NIGHT. SEAS 2-4FT/ WAVES 1-2FT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY WITH NE-E WINDS AROUND 15KT OVER ALL WATERS. BEST CHANCE FOR LOW-END SCA FLAGS BEGIN ON CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND/COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6FT BY MON MORNING. WINDS BEGIN TO LESSEN THRU MONDAY BUT SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED INTO TUES MORNING. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...BMD MARINE...JDM

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