Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 180211 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1011 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY...THEN SHIFTS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK SFC TROUGH LINGERING ACRS THE REGION...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WNW FLOW ALOFT. EARLIER CONVECTION DIMINISHED FAIRLY RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST HR...JUST SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHSIDE VA REMAIN. SOME LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN EARLIER ARE ALREADY SEEING PATCHY FOG...MAINLY ACRS NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT FLOW AND RATHER HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROMOTE SOME EXPANSION OF THE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED 20% POPS OVERNIGHT ACRS EXTREME SRN VA AND NE NC AS AREA OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVER GA/SC TRACKS ENE AND MAY BRUSH THESE ZONES. ELSEWHERE...CONTG MENTION OF LO CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT GIVEN LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE AND LGT WINDS. LO TEMPS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 F. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... BECOMING A NICE DAY ON SAT (AFT ANY LO CLOUDS/FOG DISSIPATES). WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS N...PARTLY SUNNY S. AGAIN...THERE MAY BE SCT RA OVR THE CAROLINAS...STAYING S OF THE FA. HI TEMPS M-U70S ALONG THE COAST (XCP NR 70F RIGHT AT THE BEACHES) TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND. SFC HI PRES BUILDS S ACRS THE RGN SAT NGT SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A N-NE DRCTN. DRY/COOLER WITH LO TEMPS IN THE U40S N TO THE L-M50S S. HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE CST SUN MRNG W/ LO LVL FLO BECOMING ESE. MEANWHILE...LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING TWD THE LWR GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TWD THE MDATLC RGN. STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN INCRSG CLDNS XPCD MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FM W-E). LATEST MDLS GENERALLY HOLDING SERVE WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF ANY RA. RA MAY REACH THE BAY BY EVE...WILL HAVE 30-60% POPS E-W FM THERE. RIGHT AT THE CST...KEEPING POPS AOB 14%. HI TEMPS FM THE U60S/ARND 70F W OF I95 AND RIGHT AT THE BEACHES...TO THE L/M70S ELSW. SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NGT AS WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PDS OF MDT/HVY RA...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED) THUNDER. THE AREA OF RA XPCD TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/ TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FM THE W BY LT MON AFTN (PTNTLLY LEADING TO SCT SHRAS/TSTMS). OTRW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HI TEMPS L/M70S E...U70S-NR 80F W. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT- THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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02Z UPDATE...SHOWERS HAVE VIRTUALLY DISSIPATED AND REMOVED MENTION OUT PHF TAF. ADDED 2SM FOG AT RIC AT 07Z WHERE WET GROUND FROM RAIN THIS EVENING WILL PROMOTE FOG DESPITE BKN TO OVC CLOUD COVER. KEPT IFR FOG AT SBY WHERE BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MOS HAVE 2 MILES THERE BY 06Z. AS CLOUDS INCREASE...MIXING AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT CONDITIONS FROM GETTING LOWER THAN MVFR. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN MIDDAY SATURDAY IF NOT EARLIER. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH NW OF THE DC METRO AREA WILL MOVE S/SE AND PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. WIND SHIFT TO N WILL PROBABLY NOT BE REALIZED UNTIL AFT 10Z. WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO NE DURING THE SATURDAY. OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. RAIN DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PERIODS OF IFR CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHC FOR TSTMS MONDAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
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