Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 012053 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 453 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST AND AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY...THEN BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... UPR LVL ENERGY BECOMES ABSORBED INTO CSTL LOW THIS EVENING BEFORE SYSTM MOVES EAST AFTR MIDNIGHT. CSTL PCPN WILL BE SLOW TO END THIS EVENING ALONG WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS BUT EXPECT MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN TO BE OFFSHORE BY OR SHORTLY AFTR 06Z. SOME CLRG NOTED ACROSS WRN PIEDMONT LATE THIS AFTRN AND HRRR/RAP INDCTG SCT SHWRS PSBL THERE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS SO ADDED SLGHT CHC THERE THRU 00Z. OTW...TSCTNS SHOWING SOME DRYING AFTR MIDNIGHT RESULTING IN SKIES BCMG PT CLDY. QUESTION OF WHETHER WINDS DECOUPLE ENUF FOR PTCHY FOG TO DVLP. GUIDANCE SHOW THIS TO OCCUR MAINLY WEST OF I95 SO ADDED PTCHY FOG TO THE GRIDS GIVEN THE FCSTD LOW TMPS WET GRND. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENUF FRTHR E TO INCLUDE ANY FOG ATTM. LOWS IN THE M-U40S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SAT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK SFC TROF DVLPNG IN LEE OF MTS DRNG THE AFTRN WITH EVEN A BIT OF QPF ALONG AND W OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. SO KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS BTWN 18Z-00Z FOR NOW. OTW...PT TO MSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS L-M60S CSLT AREAS...U60S-L70S WEST OF THE BAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION SAT NIGHT THEN SHIFTS EAST TO A POSITION ALONG THE MID ATLNTC COAST SUN THROUGH MON. MODELS HINT AT ANTHR LEE TROF DVLPMNT MON AFTRN...BUT LITTLE OR NO MOISTURE FOR ANY PCPN TO OCCUR. DRY/WARMER ALONG WITH DAILY SEA BREEZES DVLPNG. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE U40S-L50S. HIGHS SUN 70-75 ALONG THE COAST... M-U70S WEST OF THE BAY. LOWS SUN NIGHT L-M50S. HIGHS MON L-M70S CSTL AREAS...U70S-L80S WEST OF THE BAY. BEACH TMPS BOTH DAYS 65-70. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HI PRES WILL BE CNTRD OFF THE MID ATLC CST MON NGT AND TUE...MAINTAINING DRY WX AND ABV NORMAL TEMPS. 12Z GFS/ECMWF BOTH HINT AT A BACKDOOR FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE REGION WED INTO THU. FOR NOW...HAVE JUST A SLGT CHC OF A SHOWER OR TSTM OVR NRN/NW COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME. THEN...THU THRU FRI...MODELS SHOW LO PRES SPINNING OFF THE SE CST. HAVE A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS OVR SRN AND WRN COUNTIES DURING FRI. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WX AND ABV NORMAL TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LO PRES CONTINUES TO SPIN OFFSHORE THIS AFTN WITH N/NE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...GUSTING UP TO 20-30 KT AT TIMES. VFR/MVFR CIGS ARE CURRENTLY NOTED AT THE TAF SITES...AND SHOULD PERSIST THRU THE ERLY EVENG HRS AS AREAS OF -RA CONTINUE. THE RAIN WILL END THIS EVENG FM W TO E AS THE LO PULLS FARTHER OFFSHORE. STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS THEREAFTER...BUT CIGS SHOULD EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO VFR EVERYWHERE. MSTLY CLOUDY INTO ERLY SAT WITH GUSTY N WINDS CONTINUING. SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FOR SAT NIGHT THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WX AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED. && .MARINE... LO PRES JUST OFF THE NC CST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EWRD OUT TO SEA TNGT THRU SAT. HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE WTRS LATE SAT INTO MON...THEN SLIDES OUT TO SEA MON AFTN THRU TUE. WITH 4 PM ISSUANCE...HAVE CANCELLED GALE WARNINGS...AND WENT BACK TO SCA`S. NE OR N WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TNGT THRU SAT MORNG...WITH SCA`S LASTING THE LONGEST ON THE CST (THRU SAT EVENG) DUE TO SEAS REMAINING UP NEAR 5 FT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST SAT NGT INTO WED...AS HI PRES SETTLES OVER THE WTRS THEN SLIDES OUT TO SEA. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... LOW PRESSURE STALLED ALONG THE COAST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE WATERS AND COASTAL AREAS. THE RESULT WILL BE TIDAL ANOMALIES ON THE ORDER OF 1.0 TO JUST OVER 1.5 FT DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEVERAL TIDAL SITES ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND MIDDLE TO LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL APPROACH MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS ALL SITES BELOW MINOR FLOODING...BUT LOCALES IN THE LOWER BAY (INCLUDING SEWELLS POINT) AND THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE WITHIN A FEW TENTHS OF A FOOT DURING HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NO COASTAL HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THE MOMENT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ102. VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ635>638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ632-634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ633. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ630-631. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...MAS MARINE...BMD/TMG TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ

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