Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 302005 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 405 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK FRONT EXITS THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... A SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ACROSS FAR SE VA AND INTO THE NC COASTAL PLAIN WILL EXIT THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY COME TO AN END OVER COASTAL NE NC LATE THIS AFTN. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE BROKEN UP NICELY AS DRIER AIR VIA NW FLOW ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD...SCOURING OUT ANY REMNANT CLOUD COVER BY MID-LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WEAK SFC RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS EVENING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...PRIMARILY SPREADING ANOTHER BATCH OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE FA TWD MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 35-40 WEST TO 40-45 EAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... A SFC LOW CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL NOSE INTO THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING TUE MORNING AND PASS ACROSS NRN FA COUNTIES DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER DURING THE AFTN WITH VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION WITH THE LOW. WITH DRY AIR AND WEAK SFC RIDGING IN PLACE...TRENDED TWD A SLIGHTLY DRIER FORECAST DURING TUE AFTN 18-21Z TIMEFRAME WITH NO HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT POPS. MEANWHILE...BREEZY SW WINDS DEVELOP BY MID MORNING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS MAINLY UP TO 25 MPH (UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG/NORTH OF A LINE FROM FARMVILLE TO BOWLING GREEN). THE COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY ENHANCE FIRE DANGER DURING THE AFTN AND A STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED. SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION. THE DRY AND WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT WILL HELP TO BOOST HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR INTERIOR VA/NE NC AND INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. PRECIP INCREASES INTO CHANCE WORDING EARLY TUE EVENING (MAINLY ACROSS FAR NRN COUNTIES AND THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE)...BECOMING LIKELY AFTER 00Z/8 PM FROM THE NRN NECK TO THE THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING WHEN BEST MOISTURE/LIFT CROSS THIS AREA. THE LOW EXITS THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ALL PRECIP COMES TO AN END. SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY WED MORNING AND NW-N WINDS BECOME BREEZY ALONG THE COAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. EXPECT LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 NORTH TO LOW-MID 40S SOUTH. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WED. A COOL DAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S FOR INTERIOR VA/NE NC...AND IN THE MID-UPPER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE WED NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 MOST LOCATIONS. WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OFFSHORE ON THU AND A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SW...THE AREA WILL BE WITHIN A WARMING AIRMASS ESPECIALLY AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP BY THE AFTN. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S ONCE AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI-SAT...WITH A NOD TOWARD THE 30/12Z ECWMF. BIGGEST CHANGES COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO IS PUSHING THE PRECIP BACK 6- 12 HRS...WITH THE FRONT NOW PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT- SAT MORNING. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEX AS WELL AS THE GULF STREAM. POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE LOCATES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRI...WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATING OVER SERN CANADA. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT REACHES THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS LATE FRI...LIKELY STALLING AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LAGS BEHIND. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE SW FLOW IN TANDEM WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FRI...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE NRN PIEDMONT TO THE MD ERN SHORE. HEIGHT FALLS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SFC/THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THETA-E ADVECTION AND A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS (TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S) WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE SRN/SERN LOCAL AREA...AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON FROM SRN VA TO THE COAST. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FRI AFTERNOON. A SRN STREAM SYSTEM LIFTING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY-NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT WILL DEVELOP A SFC LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE VIC OF THE OH VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES. SFC LOW PROGGED TO LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA LATE FRI NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ATTM APPEAR TO BE FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE INCREASED TO HIGH END CHANCE POPS. PRECIP EXITS THE COAST SAT AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY QUICKER) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. COOLER SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S N TO MID- UPPER 60S S. DRY SUN WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. HIGHS SUN LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. UNSETTLED WEATHER PROGGED TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AN AREA OF -RA WILL PUSH EAST OF KECG BY 19Z. OTW...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. GUSTY SW TO WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TIL AROUND 22-23Z BEFORE DIMINISHING. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA TUE BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUE NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT... GUSTY SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUE AFTN. A BRIEF -SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KSBY TUE EVE. DRY WX AND VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED WED AND THU. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THU AFTN. && .MARINE... COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW BECOMING NWLY OVER THE NRN WATERS. SW GUSTS OF 20 KT HAVE FINALLY SUBSIDED OVER THE LOWER BAY...ALLOWING SCA HEADLINES TO BE DROPPED. SCA HEADLINES REMAIN OVER THE NRN COASTAL WATERS AS SSE SWELL HAS HELPED KEEP SEAS IN THE NRN COASTAL ZONE IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE. HAVE EXTENDED SCA HEADLINES THRU 7PM AS W-NW WINDS WILL HELP PUSH SEAS BELOW 5 FT THIS EVENING. NW FLOW WILL BE BRIEF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATER THRU LATE TONIGHT...SWITCHING THE FLOW TO THE SW. SPEEDS REMAIN 10-15KT. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUES...RESULTING IN AN UPTICK IN SWLY FLOW TUES AFTERNOON. FLOW INCREASES TO 15-25 KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES BUILD TO 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATER TUES NIGHT WITH FLOW BECOMING NWLY POST FRONTAL. BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUES EVENING BEFORE CAA SURGE KICKS IN. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT LATE TUES NIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE LOCATES OVER THE WATER WEDS MORNING...ALLOWING SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE THURS AS SLY FLOW RETURNS THURS-FRI...AVG 10-20 KT. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATER LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL. && .FIRE WEATHER... SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE MID-20% RANGE ACROSS VA AND NORTHEAST NC WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER. AFTER COORDINATING WITH THE NC AND VA FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WILL ISSUE AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CRITICAL RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY BE MET IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...10-HR DEAD FUEL MOISTURE VALUES ARE STILL MARGINAL OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING THE NECESSARY THRESHOLD OF 7%. ON THE EASTERN SHORE...A STATEMENT WILL NOT BE NECESSARY DUE TO HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR INCOMING CLOUDS WITH AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634>638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD NEAR TERM...BMD SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...JDM MARINE...SAM FIRE WEATHER...JDM

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