Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 062032 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 432 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AND WILL SPIN OFF OR NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... LATEST RDR LATE THIS AFTN SHOWED SCTD SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS OVR NRN/NW VA AND DRIFTING SSE. THESE SHOWERS AND MAYBE A TSTM OR TWO COULD MOVE INTO OUR NRN/NW COUNTIES DURING THIS EVENG. HAVE 30%-50% POPS IN THESE AREAS...DIMINISHING TO SLGT CHC (20%) OR 14%-10% AS YOU GO SE TWD EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC. VERY LITTLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PRESENT...SO SEVERE WX IS UNLIKELY. BUT...COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN ANY TSTM...DUE TO SLOW OVERALL STORM MOVEMENT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INTO THE 1.25" TO 1.50" RANGE. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY TNGT WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... THU THRU SAT...GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF WITH REGARD SPECIFICALLY TO A LO PRES AREA WHICH WILL SLOWLY LIFT NWRD AND SPIN JUST OFF THE SE CST. AT THE SAME TIME...SFC HI PRES WILL SLIDE OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST AND WELL OUT TO SEA. EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY THRU THE PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DWPTS/HUMIDITY...DUE TO ONSHORE FLO. ONLY A SLGT CHC OF A SHOWER OR TSTM IN THE EXTRM NW AND EXTRM SSE COUNTIES THU AFTN/EARLY THU EVENG. HI TEMPS RANGING THRU THE 70S NE (UPR 60S AT OCEAN CITY) AND ALONG THE CST TO UPR 70S TO LWR 80S INLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF AFOREMENTIONED LO MOVNG NWRD JUST OFF THE SE CST. WEAK FLO/UPR LO CLOSING OFF OVER THE SE CST THU NGT THRU SAT MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST...SLOW MOVEMENT AS THE LOW BECOMES STACKED WITH HEIGHT. FOR AKQ CWA...WE WILL BE ON THE NRN FRINGE...WITH OCCASIONAL WAVES OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND MODEST LIFT AFFECTING MAINLY THE SRN 1/2 OF THE CWA LATE THU NGT THRU SAT. HAVE NO HIGHER THAN 20%-30% POPS INTO FRI MORNG...HAVE 30%-40% POPS OVER EXTRM SRN VA/NE NC FRI AFTN INTO EARLY FRI EVENG...THEN HAVE 30%-40% POPS OVR CNTRL/SRN VA AND NE NC SAT AFTN INTO EARLY SAT EVENG. MAINLY JUST 20% OR LESS OVER THE ENE. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S NEAR THE CST TO THE LWR 80S WELL INLAND BOTH FRI AND SAT. LOWS GET A TAD WARMER AS DEW PTS RISE...RANGING FM THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S THU NGT...AND IN THE LWR TO MID 60S FRI NGT (ALTHO SOME UPR 50S STILL POSSIBLE AT OCEAN CITY). && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FOR CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST HAS TO DO WITH LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE SE COAST...ITS EVENTUAL TRACK...AND HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT IT HAS ON THE LOCAL AREA. STAYED CLOSE TO WPC/NHC FORECASTS FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND/FIRST OF NEXT WEEK WHICH BRINGS THE CENTER OF THE LOW UP INTO EASTERN NC ON MONDAY...THEN OFF THE VA COAST ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES OVER THE LOCAL AREA SUN- TUE...THEN DRY AGAIN NEXT WED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS THROUGH TUE IN THE 80S...EXCEPT COOLER 70S IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXPECT FOR SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS LEFT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND CIRRUS FROM LOW OFF THE FL COAST. FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS...BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT IS DEVELOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AND COULD SLIDE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING. RIC IS THE MOST FAVOR LOCATION FOR CONVECTION...BUT WITH MODELS SHOWING THAT ANYTHING THAT FORMS QUICKLY WEAKENS...HAVE ELECTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF STORMS WITH JUST A 20 - 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIP FALLING. THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT KEEPING SOME MID DECK CLOUDS FROM RIC-SBY. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...THE REGION IS IN THE SUBSIDENCE REGION FROM THE LOW OFF THE COAST SO OUTSIDE OF SOME THICKENING CIRRUS...NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS. THE WINDS ARE TURNING SOME E TO SE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST AND THE LOW TO THE SOUTH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH. BUT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS A BACKDOOR FRONT FALLS APART AS IT MOVE INTO VA AND THE LOW TO THE SOUTH STRENGTHENS. SO THE FLOW WILL BECOME E - NE BUT ANY CEILINGS SHOULD BE VFR. LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE SE COAST THRU THE COMING WEEKEND...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SE VA/NE NC FRI THRU SUN. && .MARINE... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT OVER THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC BY TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. LIGHT SE FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE E-NE TONIGHT...THEN REMAINS LIGHT E ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY OFF THE SE COAST IS EXPECTED TO ONLY SLOWLY MEANDER UP THE CAROLINA COAST THRU MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS. RIGHT NOW...SEAS ARE ONLY FORECAST TO BUILD TO 3-4 FT ON FRI...REMAINING 2-4 FT THRU THE WEEKEND. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...ESS MARINE...JDM

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