Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 201110 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 710 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF RICHMOND THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CLEAR OUR NORTHERN FA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LAST BIT OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MOVING OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS ENDED UP BETWEEN 0.50-2.00" OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID- AFTERNOON HOURS. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GOOD MIXING (BREEZY THIS AFTN) WILL BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOW/MID 70S AT THE COAST...AND UPR 70S TO LOW/MID 80S ELSEWHERE. CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO A TROUGH ALOFT/COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE THIS AFTN/EVE. WARM TEMPS AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE OUR FA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX IS CERTAINLY THERE GIVEN ML CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND A MODEST SHEAR PROFILE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT POSSIBLE STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS IN THE HWO. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA TONIGHT WITH CHC POPS...THEN DRYING/COOLER WESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TUE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO NR 70 AT THE COAST...AND LOW/MID 70S ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRES MOVES TO NR THE SE CONUS COAST BY WED...PROVIDING WSW FLOW AND CONTINUING MILD WX. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WNW...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS (ISOLD TSTMS). LOW TEMPS TUE NGT MID 40S WEST AND NORTH TO LOW 50S SE. HIGH TEMPS WED IN THE LOW/MID 70S...EXCEPT 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPPER CLOSED LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE WEDS NIGHT-EARLY THURS MORNING. GFS CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE SLOWER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE WRT FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE ECMWF QUICKER. BASED ON WLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BACK OVER THE MIDWEST...OPTED TO REINTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDS NIGHT OVER THE NRN AND NERN ZONES AND THEN THURS SOUTH AND EAST OF RICHMOND...TRENDING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS. HIGHS THURS AROUND NORMAL...LOW-MID 60S. THEREAFTER...COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SWD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE MIDWEST...EXTENDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI. HIGHS FRI GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S NE TO MID 60S SE UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND NWLY WINDS. SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST FRI NIGHT-SAT WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF STATES SAT. MOISTURE RETURNS SAT TO GO ALONG WITH OVERRUNNING AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT. INCREASED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE N TO CHANCE S. HIGHS SAT GENERALLY AROUND 60 ACROSS THE REGION. SFC LOW MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT...WITH ANY REMAINING PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUN...BUT COOL CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NE TO LOW 60S SE. && .AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE FRONTAL RAINBAND IS MOVING OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. CLOUD COVER ACTUALLY SCATTERING OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A GUSTY SW WIND. A SECONDARY IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. ANY TSTMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST LATER TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TUESDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING NNE OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS COMBINATION IS PRODUCING SOLID SCA CONDITIONS IN SE FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS AVERAGING 20-25KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. ADDITIONALLY...SEAS HAVE RISEN TO 5-8FT...AND WILL LIKELY REACH 6-9FT EARLY TODAY...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PRESENTLY CROSSING THE AREA AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY 12Z (15Z FARTHER NE). EXPECT THE WIND TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS RELAXING TO 10-15KT. INHERITED SCA FLAGS REMAIN AS IS. HOWEVER...THE RIVERS COULD POTENTIALLY END EARLIER THAN THE CURRENT 10 AM TIME. THIS WILL BE RECONSIDERED AT THE 11Z/7 AM UPDATE. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SHOWERS/TSTMS...WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... AVG QPF 0.75-2.00"...LOCALLY UP TO 2.50" OVR MOST OF THE RIVER BASINS WILL RESULT IN RIVER LVLS TO PSBLY RISE TO 1/2-NR FULL BANKFULL TUE INTO WED. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL HELP MAINTAIN ~1.0 FT ANOMALIES IN THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH TONIGHT. TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE. NO STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME...BUT BISHOPS HEAD WILL COME CLOSE TO THEIR 3.25FT MINOR THRESHOLD. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...AJZ HYDROLOGY... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ

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