Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 181738 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 138 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... WK S/W ALOFT NOW OFF THE CST...W/ CLEARING OCCURRING OVR MOST OF FA. AN AREA OF SCT -RA CONTG TO MOVE THROUGH ECNTRL NC...AND WILL BE OFF THE CST (AND RMN S OF THE FA) DURING MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN HRS. WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE N/CNTRL PORTIONS OF FA THIS AFTN...PARTLY SUNNY S. HIGH RES MODELS INSIST ON ISOLD SHOWERS...MAYBE AN ISOLD TSTM DEVELOPING ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER INTO NE NC THIS AFTN. WILL CONT W/ 15-25% POPS FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. HI TEMPS M/U70S ALONG THE COAST (EXCEPT NEAR 70 RIGHT AT THE BEACHES) TO THE U70S-L80S INLAND. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... STRONGER SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR 40S N TO THE LOW/MID 50S SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E). LATEST MODELS COMING IN A LITTLE FASTER WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF ANY RAIN. HAVE CHANCE POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU BY 16-18Z SUN...INCREASING TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS BY 00Z. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 60S...WITH SOME LOW 70S POSSIBLE SOUTH. SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION SUN NIGHT AS WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED) THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MONDAY MORNING...WITH TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON AFTN (LIKELY LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL SEVERE WX THREAT FOR MON AFTN ATTM. OTW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS LOW/MID 70S EAST...UPR 70S- NR 80 WEST. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLD FRONT EXITS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS (SOLID CHANCE ALONG THE COAST) MON NIGHT...BUT LATEST MODELS HAVE SPED UP FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEREAFTER...BLOCKY FLOW PROGGED TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES/SRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION TUES. WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE COAST WEDS AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP OVER THE OH VALLEY WEDS. TEMPS WEDS NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDS NIGHT- THURS MORNING...BUT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT WILL STALL THE FRONT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 17/12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH MORE MOISTURE THAN ITS 17/12Z ECMWF COUNTERPART...WHICH PUSHES THE FRONT THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURS-THURS NIGHT ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL AGAIN THURS...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO MID-UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT OVER NE NC...WHERE CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ON RADAR. HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THESE WILL SPREAD SWWD/WSWWD DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INSERTED VCSH INTO KECG TAF UNTIL 20Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA IN THE 06Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME...WITH A SHIFT TO NE WINDS. SOME GUSTINESS EXPECTED AS WELL. ATTM...DO NOT SEE LO STRATUS BEING AN ISSUE BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR LATER TAF ISSUANCES. DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND ASSOCIATED DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL AREAS...WITH PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING FROM SW TO NE DURING THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME MONDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN. && .MARINE... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE TROUGH. THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW ~5KT TO NNE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND BECOME SEA/BAY BREEZE DOMINATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT TO NE. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15KT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH-RES NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST 20KT IS POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE TO 20-25KT BAY/25-30KT OCEAN OUT OF THE SE. THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY MONDAY WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT. SEAS BUILD TO 4- 5FT LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO ONSHORE FLOW...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7FT (MAINLY N) SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT MONDAY. AN SCA HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET AS THIS IS PRIMARILY A LATE 3RD/4TH PERIOD EVENT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL TUESDAY. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...AJZ/WRS MARINE...AJZ

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