Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 162357 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 757 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... SCT -RA HAS MADE IT TO JUST ABT THE I 95 AS OF MID AFTN...WHILE DRY AIR CONTS HOLDING ON TWD THE CST. THERE HAS BEEN A TENDENCY FOR THE PCPN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE PAST FEW HRS. QUESTION FOR THE EVE/OVRNGT IS COVERAGE/AMT OF RA AS WK TROUGH ALOFT PUSHES ACRS THE FA. BULK OF THE MOISTURE TENDS TO LIFT TO THE NE TWD NEW ENG BY LT TNGT...LEAVING MNLY CLDY CONDS OVR THE FA. WILL HANG ONTO 30-40% POPS OVR MNLY WRN/CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE FA. LO TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... SFC HI PRES MOVES FARTHER E ON FRI RESULTING IN FLO TO BE SSWLY OVR THE FA. XPCG A TENDENCY FOR PARTIAL CLRG (AFT EARLY/MID MRNG HRS)...LEADING TO SCT-BKN CLDNS IN THE AFTN. LITTLE SUPPORT ALOFT FOR PCPN...THOUGH ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED W/ DAYTIME HEATING MAY RESULT IN SCT SHRAS. HI TEMPS FM THE M60S-L70S NR THE CST TO THE M/U70S INLAND. XPCG ANY LINGERING SHRAS TO DISSIPATE FRI EVE...OTRW RMNG PCLDY AS WK SFC HI PRES BEGINS TO BUILD INTO RGN FM THE NW. THERE IS CONCERN ABT STRATUS/PATCHY FOG DUE TO LGT/VRB WNDS AND LINGERING LO LVL MOISTURE. LO TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. WNW FLO ALOFT...AND WK SFC HI PRES OVR THE FA ON SAT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A DRY/SEASONABLY WARM DAY. PCPN XPCD TO RMN WELL S AND W OF THE FA. AFT ANY EARLY MRNG CLDS/FOG...SHOULD BE P/M SUNNY W/ HI TEMPS FM THE U60S TO M70S AT THE CST TO THE L80S (WELL) INLAND. SFC HI PRES MOVES FM SE CANADA TO OFF THE NE/MDATLC CST BY SUN AFTN. NEXT AREA OF LO PRES WILL BE APPROACHING FM THE WSW...RESULTING IN INCRSG CLDNS DURG SUN...W/ PTNTL RA ARRIVING (MNLY OVR CNTRL/WRN PORTIONS OF THE FA) IN THE AFTN. LO TEMPS SAT NGT FM THE M40S TO L50S. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE M60S AT THE CST TO THE M70S INLAND. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRECIP CHANCES SUN NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A WARM FRONT STARTS SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE. PRECIP DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL WRAPAROUND MOISTURE INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS MON AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS TUE/WED GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S. LOWS TUE/WED NIGHTS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS OFF TO THE EAST AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN IS EXPECTED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BUT ANY RAIN THAT OCCURS AT THE TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE LITTLE BEARING ON AVIATION CONDITIONS. DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY...LEFT RAIN OUT OF THE TAFS. THERE ARE INDICATIONS FOR LOWER CEILINGS FRIDAY MORNING AND INCLUDED MVFR CIGS AT ALL BUT SBY. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IFR AT ORF AND ECG BUT THOSE SOUNDINGS HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES THAT ARE TOO LOW. LIGHT SE WINDS BECOME SW ON FRIDAY. OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY. RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG WITH PERIODS OF IFR. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY. && .MARINE... EXTENDED SCA THROUGH 700 PM FRIDAY EVENING FOR ANZ658 AS PROLONGED NE-E ONSHORE FLOW ALLOWS FOR 5 FT SEAS TO CONTINUE...MAINLY OUT AROUND 20 NM. SPEEDS RANGING FROM 5-15 KT THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AOB 15KT. SEAS 2-4FT/WAVES 1-2FT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY AS SRN JET STREAM ALLOWS NEXT ROUND OF MOISTURE/ENERGY TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AND NE-E WINDS AVERAGE 15-20KT OVER ALL WATERS. BEST CHANCE FOR LOW-END SCA FLAGS BEGINS ON CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND LATE SUN AFTN/EARLY EVENING AND ON THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SUN NIGHT. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3-4FT BY SUN AFTN...INCREASING TO 4-6FT BY MON AFTN BEFORE WINDS FINALLY TURN NW-N LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 5FT LATE TUE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB LONG TERM...BMD/MAS AVIATION...LSA MARINE...BMD/JDM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.