Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 182127 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 527 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... SEASONABLY WARM THIS AFTN ACRS FA...MAINLY SUNNY N...PARTLY SUNNY S. ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVR (INTERIOR) NE NC IN RGN OF MUCAPE AVGG 1000 J/KG. ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS EXTEND WWD JUST S OF THE VA/NC BORDER INVOF LO LVL BNDRY. CONTG LO POPS INVOF NE NC THROUGH THE (EARLY) EVE HRS BEFORE WANING. BACKDOOR CDFNT PRESENTLY DROPPING S TWD THE FA ATTM...AND WILL BE PUSHING S ACRS THE FA OVRNGT AS STRONGER SFC HI PRES BUILDS SE OUT OF ERN CANADA. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER TNGT W/ LO TEMPS IN THE U40S N TO THE L/M50S S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... SFC HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LO LVL FLO BCMG ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION. MDLS DO HINT AT PSBL STRATUS EARLY SUN MRNG...ESP OVR NE NC/SE VA...OTRW STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. XPCG INCSG CLOUDS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E). LATEST MDLS AGREE W/ PREVIOUS RUN WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF ANY RAIN. HAVE CHC POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU BY 16-18Z SUN...INCRSG TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FM ABT ECG-OFP ON W BY 00Z...WHILE KEEPING POPS AOB 20% ON THE ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS IN THE M/U60S...WITH SOME L70S SE. SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NIGHT AS WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED) THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/ TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON AFTN (LIKELY LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PSBL STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS (IN HWO) FOR (LT) MON AFTN/EVE. OTW...VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S AT THE CST...80 TO 85F ELSW. CDFNT CROSSES THE FA MON NGT (W/ SCT POPS...HIGHEST NNE-CNTRL)...W/ DRYING/COOLER WLY FLO TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TUE W/ HI TEMPS IN THE U60S TO NR 70F AT THE CST...AND L/M70S ELSW. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES. FAST WLY/ZONAL FLOW PROGGED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE STATES/SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE WEDS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT IS A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY WEDS WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...UPPER 60S TO 70 INLAND AND MID- UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE STACKED UPPER LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE WEDS-WEDS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT REACHED THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS WEDS NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURS. FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL VIC NC THURS NIGHT DUE TO WLY FLOW ALOFT. QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN THERE IS THURS AS ECMWF REMAINS DRY AND THE GFS RATHER MOIST. DIFFERENCE IS LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW IN GFS COMPARED TO WLY FLOW IN THE ECMWF. TRENDED TOWARD DRIER ECMWF...DROPPING POPS TO SILENT THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGHS THURS REMAINING AROUND NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY THURS NIGHT-FRI...EXTENDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS...NWLY WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRI...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND TO UPPER 50S-LOW 60S COASTAL AREAS. MODELS PICKING UP ON A SRN STREAM SYSTEM CROSSING THE SE STATES SAT. MENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SRN VA/NE NC...CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BEST MOISTURE RETURN. && .AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT OVER NE NC...WHERE CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ON RADAR. HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THESE WILL SPREAD SWWD/WSWWD DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INSERTED VCSH INTO KECG TAF UNTIL 20Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA IN THE 06Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME...WITH A SHIFT TO NE WINDS. SOME GUSTINESS EXPECTED AS WELL. ATTM...DO NOT SEE LO STRATUS BEING AN ISSUE BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR LATER TAF ISSUANCES. DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND ASSOCIATED DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL AREAS...WITH PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING FROM SW TO NE DURING THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME MONDAY. ANOTHER IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN. && .MARINE... LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. WINDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KT...SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE COAST. FRONT DROPS OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NE BEHIND THE FRONT...INCREASING TO 10-15 KT. SELECT HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATING A BRIEF UPTICK IN WINDS TO ~20 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. SURGE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED...SO WILL HANDLE WITH SHORT FUSED PRODUCTS IF NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SUN AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RESULTANT GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT (MINUS THE UPPER JAMES). PERSISTENT NE FLOW OF 15-20 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT SUN AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY SOONER). SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT...HELPING RAMP UP SPEEDS TO 20-25 KT OVER THE BAY/COASTAL WATERS AND 15-20 KT ERN VA RIVERS/SOUND. SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH OF THE WATERS MON WITH SLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT. SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND DROP OFF LATE SUN NIGHT...BUT 4-6 FT SEAS PERSIST THRU THE DAY MON. HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THRU 4TH PERIOD/MON. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MON-MON EVENING...CROSSING THE WATERS LATE MON NIGHT- TUES MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATE ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES-SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES-WEDS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE WINDS SWITCH TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL MOST TIDAL GAGES. COMBINATION OF TIDAL ANOMALIES AND HIGH ASTRO TIDES (NEW MOON PHASE) WILL PUSH MOST SITES OVER HAT DURING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PORTIONS OF THE UPPER BAY AND OCEAN CITY WILL APPROACH MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ630>636-638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...WRS MARINE...SAM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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