Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 270731 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 331 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... STARTING OUT MNLY SKC ACRS THE FA ATTM. FOG NOT THAT EXTENSIVE NOR SGFNT ATTM...WILL MONITOR THROUGH EARLY MRNG HRS. OTRW...BROAD UPR LVL LO PRES EXTENDS FM CANADIAN MARITIMES TO SE GREAT LAKES. S/W DIVING SE THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES BY THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE RESULTING IN VRB CLDS-PCLDY W/ LO POPS...MNLY N AND E LOCATIONS. HI TEMPS FM THE L60S NR THE BAY/OCN TO THE M/U60S ELSW. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... S/W EXITS TO THE ESE THIS EVE...W/ ANY BKN CLDS AND ISOLD/SCT PCPN DISSIPATING OVRNGT. SFC HI PRES TO CONT TO BUILD INTO RGN FM THE NW THROUGH TUE...THEN WEAKEN/DRIFT OFF THE CST INTO WED. LO PRES EXITING SCNTRL CONUS TUE/TUE NGT BEGINS TO TRACK THROUGH THE GULF CST STATES ON WED...BRINGING GRADUAL INCRS IN CLDNS/MOISTURE INTO THE MDATLC RGN. MDLS CONT TO HOLD OFF MOST OF ANY SGFNT PCPN UNTIL LT WED. WILL MAINTAIN WILL MAINTAIN 20-40% POPS WED AFTN SW...DRY NE. LO TEMPS TNGT MNLY IN THE L/M40S. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE M60S AT THE CST TO U60S-ARND 70F INLAND. LO TEMPS TUE NGT MNLY 45 TO 50F. HI TEMPS WED FM THE M60S SW TO AROUND 70F ELSW. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE FORECAST BEGINNING WED NIGHT REMAINS WEIGHTED TOWARD THE WPC/ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS LOW PRESSURE UP THE SE COAST WED NIGHT...THEN DEEPENS THE LOW OFF THE OBX ON THURSDAY BEFORE QUICKLY SHOVING IT WELL OUT TO SEA THURSDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THIS SOLUTION...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS (20%) NORTH AND CHC POPS (30-50%) ACROSS THE SOUTH WED NIGHT. WILL EXPAND CHC POPS (30-40%) INTO NORTHERN AREAS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS (50-60%) ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS (HIGHEST FAR SE)...BEFORE DWINDLING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING A PIECE OF NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY SOUTH INTO THE FA THURS NIGHT WHICH MAY ACTUALLY LINGER PCPN CHANCES INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY. FOR NOW...WILL COVER THE POSSIBILITY WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS. DRY WX THEN RETURNS LATER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S THU/FRI...EXCEPT SOME UPR 50S IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCALES. (NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.) HIGHS THEN WARM INTO THE MID/UPR 60S AT THE COAST TO MID/UPR 70S INLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO TUE MORNG...AS STRONG LO PRES SPINS OVR THE NRN ATLC WHILE HI PRES BLDS SSE INTO THE UPR MIDWEST. THERE MAY BE PATCHY GROUND FOG EARLY THIS MORNG AT THE SITES...DUE TO LGT WINDS AND LINGERING LO LVL MOIST. OTHERWISE...A SOMEWHAT DRIER NW OR N FLO WILL FILTER DOWN OVR THE AREA. OUTLOOK...DRY WX AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE INTO WED MORNG. LO PRES MOVES OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NE JUST OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CSTS TUE NGT INTO THU NGT WHILE INTENSIFYING. THIS LO MAY PRODUCE PCPN WED NGT INTO THU NGT. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THRU MIDDAY MONDAY FOR RELATIVELY LIGHT N-NW WINDS. LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO THE LOCAL AREA LATE MONDAY THRU TUES MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT ON THE BAY MON NIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5 FT ON THE OCEAN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUE AFTN THRU WED NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS IS LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS THU/FRI AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ635>638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...TMG MARINE...TMG

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