Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 171725 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 125 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LATE MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... WK TROUGH ALOFT CONTG TO PUSH TO THE CST THIS MRNG. AREA OF CLDNS/SCT SHRAS ASSOCIATED W/ THIS TROUGH MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF ESE VA/NE NC INTO MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN HRS. CLEARING OCCURRING BEHIND THIS FEATURE OVR NNW SECTIONS OF FA. XPCG CONDS TO AVG PSNY OVR MUCH OF THE FA THIS AFTN...AND AFT TROUGH EXITS...POPS TO BE VERY LO. ANOTHER WKNG TROUGH APPROACHING FM THE NW LT THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ISOLD/SCT SHRAS. HI TEMPS FM THE U60-L70S CSTL AREAS...M-U70S INLAND. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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TROF LINGERS ACROSS NRN NECK/ERN SHORE THIS EVENING SO KEPT 30 POP SHWRS GOING THERE THRU THE EVE HRS...20 POP ELSEWHERE. SKIES THEN BECOME PT CLDY FOR SVRL HRS. THIS SHUD ALLOW FOR SOME STRATUS/ PTCHY FOG TO DVLP AFTR MIDNIGHT DUE TO A LGHT WND FLOW AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS IN THE 50S. NICE START TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED SATURDAY AS A WEAK SFC HIGH RESIDES OVR THE AREA. WNW FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN A MSTLY SUNNY AND WARM DAY (AFTR AM FOG LIFTS) WITH ANY PCPN STAYING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. HIGHS M-U70S ALONG THE COAST (XCPT NR 70 AT THE BEACHES) TO THE U70S-L80S WEST OF THE CHES BAY. A STRNGR SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT SHIFTING THE WINDS TO A N-NE DRCTN. DRY / COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE U40S NORTH TO THE L-M50S SOUTH. LATEST MODELS CONT TO SLOW THE NXT SYSTM APPRCHG FROM THE WEST SUN AS THE HIGH PRS TO THE NE HOLDS FIRM THROUGH MID AFTN. THUS...MADE CHANGES TO SUNDAYS GRIDS BY KEEPING THE FA DRY THROUGH 18Z... KEPT COASTAL AREAS DRY THROUGH THE DAY...20-30 POP I95 CORRIDOR WITH 30- 40 POP WESTERN PIEDMONT AREAS AFTR 18Z. LOWERED TMPS AS WELL DUE TO THE INCRG CLOUD COVERAGE AND N-E FLOW. HIGHS L-M60S ALONG THE COAST 65-70 WEST OF THE BAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRECIP CHANCES SUN NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A WARM FRONT STARTS SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. SOME MDT TO LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS PSBL SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE PROGGED OMEGA AND THETA E ADVCTN. LOWS IN THE MID 50S NW TO LOWER 60S SE. PRECIP DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL WRAPAROUND MOISTURE INTO MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS MON AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS TUE/WED GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S. LOWS TUE/WED NIGHTS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE.
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&& .AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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LIGHT DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND THEN OUT TO SEA ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...THERE ARE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA INVOF A WEAK TROUGH PASSING BY JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH VFR CIGS/VIS. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOST TAF SITES BECOMING SATURATED AT THE SFC BTWN 18/0600-1200Z...A TECHNIQUE USED IN BUFKIT INDICATES THAT LOW CLOUDS ARE FAVORED OVER FOG. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED SCT LOW CLOUDS AT ALL TAF SITES (EXCEPT KRIC) AFTER 18/0800Z AND KEPT ANY FOG MENTION AT OR ABOVE 4SM. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW-N TONIGHT AND SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE SW SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED SUN EVENING. EXPECT STEADY RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ALONG THE WARM FRONT SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING AND MORE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY PRECIPITATION WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE MON AFTN INTO MON EVENING. PERIODS OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON EVENING.
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&& .MARINE... SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANZ658 THRU THIS EVENING FOR SEAS NEAR 5 FT...ESPECIALLY OUT AROUND 20 NM. TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... ANTICIPATE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT S-SE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT NORTHERLY SAT THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE SAT NIGHT. SEAS 2-4FT/ WAVES 1-2FT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY WITH NE-E WINDS AROUND 15KT OVER ALL WATERS. BEST CHANCE FOR LOW-END SCA FLAGS BEGIN ON CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND/COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6FT BY MON MORNING. WINDS BEGIN TO LESSEN THRU MONDAY BUT SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED INTO TUES MORNING. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...BMD MARINE...JDM

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