Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 011636 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1236 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST AND AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY...THEN BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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PCPN BCMG MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE ERLY THIS AFTRN AS THE UPR LVL LOW TRACKS ESE ACROSS NC AND EVENTUALLY GETTING ABSORBED IN THE CSTL LOW. XCPTN BEING ALONG THE VA ERN SHORE/TIDEWATER AREA WHERE BANDS OF MDT TO LCLLY HVY SHWRS CONT TO ROTATE IN FROM THE OCEAN. ADJUSTED POPS A BIT FOR THE NEXT SVRL HRS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS MIGRATING TO THE SERN PART OF THE AREA WITH LIKELY POPS TAPERING OFF TO CHC THEN ENDING ACROSS THE NORTH LATE. LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH ALTHOUGH SOME BRIGHTENING MAY OCCUR AFTR 21Z OR SO. STILL A WET AND CHILLY AFTRN AHEAD ALONG THE SERN CSTL AREAS WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT 25-35 MPH. HIGHS 55-60...COOLEST ALONG THE COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... MOISTURE FROM THE COASTAL LOW LINGERS ACROSS THE SERN THIRD OF FA TNGT WITH POPS RAMPING DOWN QUICKLY LATE AS PCPN MOVES OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST RESULTS IN DECREASING CLOUDS LATE ACROSS WRN HALF OF FA. SOME PATCHY FOG PSBL GIVEN A WET GROUND...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON PUTTING ANY FOG IN GRIDS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHEN AND WHERE ANY CLEARING DOES OCCUR. COOL WITH LOWS IN THE M-U40S. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST SAT...TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT THEN MOVES OFF THE N CAROLINA COAST LATE SUNDAY. THIS SCENARIO EXPECTED TO BRING MAINLY DRY WX ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND THRU THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONT TO INDICATED A LEE TROF SAT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND EAST OF THIS FEATURE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCT AFTERNOON / EARLY EVE SHOWERS ACROSS WRN HALF OF FA. HIGHS SAT IN THE 60S ALONG THE COAST U60S TO L70S WEST OF THE BAY. LOWS SAT NIGHT U40S-L50S. WARMER SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE U60S- L70S ALONG THE COAST...M-U70S WEST OF THE BAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE PERIOD...WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE EAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TO BEGIN THE PERIOD ON MONDAY...REMAINING OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MID WEEK. STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION...AS WELL AS ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP...THRU TUE NIGHT. SRN STREAM ENERGY EJECTS FROM THE 4 CORNERS REGION TUE NIGHT AS NRN STREAM ENERGY DIGS SEWD OVER SE CANADA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHARPEN OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. AMPLIFYING FLOW WILL ALLOW THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO SAG SWD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDS. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWER/THUNDER WORDING WEDS AS BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE NW ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEREAFTER...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM SO WILL MAINTAIN SILENT POPS BEYOND WEDS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S INLAND AND MID-UPPER 70S NEAR THE COASTS. THIS DUE TO RETURN FLOW AND H92 TEMPS AROUND +1 STD DEV. LOWS MON NIGHT-WED NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. ATTM...FLOW APPEARS TO BE ONSHORE THU BASED ON MODELED BOUNDARY LOCATION...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST BUT STILL LOW 80S INLAND. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 75 TO 100 MILES EAST OF DUCK NC AS OF 300 AM THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY IN THIS GENERAL VICINITY THROUGH TODAY AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTN BEFORE FINALLY BEING PUSHED AWAY FROM THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. N-NE WINDS HAVE ALREADY BECOME BREEZY AT COASTAL LOCATIONS ALONG CHES BAY AND THE ATLANTIC. SPEEDS ARE AVERAGING 6 TO 12KT. AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE DAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO TIGHTEN AND WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY BTWN 20 TO 30KT THIS AFTN. RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE STEADY PRECIPITATION THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY SERN COASTAL AREAS. CIGS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR THRESHOLDS WHILE VISIBILITIES RANGE FROM 3-5SM WITHIN STRONGEST RAINFALL. AS THE LOW GETS PUSHED AWAY FROM THE COAST AND OUT TO SEA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WINDS/PRECIP WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A SECONDARY WAVE OF ENERGY DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AFTN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION...BUT ANY PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT AND IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY SAT THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH PLEASANT FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .MARINE... LWR BAY/SOUND/SRN CSTL WTRS HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNG THRU MID TO LATE AFTN. WINDS HAVE RAMPED UP THIS MORNG TO 40-50 KT OVER ELEVATED SITES OFF THE CST AND WILL INCREASE A BIT MORE THIS AFTN AS LO PRES STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE. FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 35-40 KT ARE EXPECTED NR THE SFC. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SCA FLAGS FOR ALL WATERS ARE NOW IN EFFECT. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO VARIOUS END TIMES. PLEASE REFER TO THE DISCUSSION BELOW AND ALSO THE MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE (MWWAKQ) FOR MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS. A COASTAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 75-100 MILES EAST OF DUCK NC AS OF 300 AM THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY IN THIS GENERAL VICINITY THROUGH TODAY AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTN BEFORE FINALLY BEING PUSHED AWAY FROM THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. N-NE WINDS HAVE ALREADY BECOME BREEZY WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 10-15KT AND GUSTS AROUND 20KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE DAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO TIGHTEN AND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-33KT (OR SOLID SCA CONDITIONS) BY THIS AFTN. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN WHETHER OR NOT GALE FORCE GUSTS OCCUR THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES/SRN CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND. HAVE DECIDED TO MAINTAIN SCA HEADLINES WITH THE CONTINUED MENTION OF A FEW GALE GUSTS TO 35KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTN. SEAS JUST OFF OF DUCK HAVE INCREASED TO 4FT EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE THE REST OF THE WATERS ARE AVERAGING 2-3FT. SEAS/WAVES WILL RESPOND QUICKLY TO THE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS TODAY AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES. HAVE MAINTAINED SEAS OF 5-9FT TODAY...WHICH WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE N-NE WINDS WILL PUSH THE HIGH SEAS INTO THE BEACHES FROM CAPE HENRY TO CURRITUCK LIGHT THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING...AND HAVE KEPT THE HIGH SURF ADVISORIES INTACT THE SRN WATERS FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING. CONDITIONS ON CHES BAY WILL ALSO RESPOND QUICKLY TO THE INCREASING WINDS WITH WAVES QUICKLY BUILDING TO 3-4FT...WITH UP TO 5-7FT POSSIBLE IN THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY THIS AFTN. WAVES ON THE RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND SHOULD RANGE FROM 1-3FT. WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE LOW GETS PUSHED AWAY FROM THE COAST AND OUT TO SEA. SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR CHES BAY AND ERN VA RIVERS THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING...CURRITUCK SOUND THROUGH MID-MORNING SATURDAY. THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE WITHIN SCA FLAGS THROUGH SAT EVENING DUE TO SEAS BEING SLOW TO DROP BELOW 5FT. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SAT NIGHT THROUGH MID-WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... LOW PRESSURE STALLED ALONG THE COAST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE WATERS AND COASTAL AREAS. THE RESULT WILL BE TIDAL ANOMALIES ON THE ORDER OF 1.0 TO JUST OVER 1.5 FT DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEVERAL TIDAL SITES ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND MIDDLE TO LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL APPROACH MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS ALL SITES BELOW MINOR FLOODING...BUT LOCALES IN THE LOWER BAY (INCLUDING SEWELLS POINT) AND THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE WITHIN A FEW TENTHS OF A FOOT DURING HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NO COASTAL HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THE MOMENT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ102. VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ635>638. GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ632. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ630-631. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...BMD MARINE...BMD/MAS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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