Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030554
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
154 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THEN BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WK SFC HI PRES IN PLACE OVR THE RGN UNDERNEATH NWLY FLO ALOFT.
ATMOS DRY AND WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL NGT. OTHER
THAN PATCHY CI...XPCG SKC. MAY BE PATCHY FG AFT MDNGT...ESP OVR
RURAL AREAS. MOST LO TEMPS FM THE M40S- L50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OCEAN LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW RIDGE AXIS TO BUILD OVR
THE REGION SUNDAY THEN SET UP SHOP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THRU
TUE. LGT AND VRBL WNDS SUN BECOMES SW MON & TUE DUE TO RETURN FLOW.
THIS APPEARS TO BE A DECENT SETUP FOR DAILY SEA BREEZES TO DVLP.

GFS IS FASTER WITH BRINGING IN PCPN CHCS TO NWRN PIEDMONT CNTYS
BY LATE TUE. KEPT TUE DRY FOR NOW. A SLOW WRMG XPCTD. HIGHS SUN
75-80 XCPT 65-70 AT THE BEACHES. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS
MON/TUE U70S-L80S XCPT 65-70 AT THE BEACHES. LOWS MON NITE 55-60.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
SFC HI PRES WILL BE CNTRD WELL OFF THE MID ATLC CST TUE NGT INTO
WED MORNG...MAINTAINING DRY WX. A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY POSSIBLY
DROP INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER WED THRU THU. FOR
NOW...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLGT CHC OF A SHOWER OR TSTM OVR NRN AND
WRN COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME. THEN...THU NGT THRU SAT...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW LO PRES SPINNING SOMEWHERE OFF THE SE CST. HAVE
A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVR SRN COUNTIES THU NGT THRU FRI
NGT...THEN A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS OVR MOST OF THE AREA ON SAT.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WX WILL PREVAIL WITH ABV NORMAL TEMPS
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR
60S...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACRS THE REGION AS OF 06Z...WINDS GENLY CALM
OR LIGHT S/SW. ADDED A TEMPO GROUP AT KECG FOR MVFR VSBY IN
SHALLOW GROUND FOG (DUE TO HIGHER RH AND CALM CONDS THERE). KEPT
ANY MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE OTHER SITES WITH GREATER TEMP/DEW PT
SPREADS AND SOME LIGHT WINDS.

A LIGHT W/SW FLOW TO PREVAIL TODAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WEAK
SYNOPTIC PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICALLY CONDUCIVE TO WINDS SHIFTING
ONSHORE AT THE COAST IN THE AFTN SO HAVE FORECAST WINDS TURNING NE
AT KORF (SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT ALL AREAS). LIGHT S/SW FLOW AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN S/SW FLOW ON MON.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS INDICATED THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A
LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTN THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 1 AM...MAINTAINING SCA`S ON THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 4 AM
FOR NORTHERN WATERS...AND EXTENDED THROUGH 7 AM FOR SRN WATERS
BASED ON LATEST OBS/TRENDS.

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL LATER
TODAY INTO WED...AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE WATERS THEN SLIDES
OUT TO SEA. FAIRLY MINIMAL SYNOPTIC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
CONDUCIVE TO DAILY SEABREEZES AND SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW
UP THE BAY AT NIGHT (THOUGH SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS). BACKDOOR COLD FRONT POSSIBLE LATER WED INTO THU
COMBINED WITH SFC LOW OFF THE GA/SC CST WOULD POTENTIALLY INCREASE
WIND SPEEDS AND SHIFT DIRECTIONS TO THE E/NE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...BMD/MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LKB/LSA
MARINE...LKB/TMG


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