Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KAMA 241734
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1234 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE POPS FOR THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE AS THE DRYLINE HAS NOT MOVED EAST AS FAST AS MODELS
SUGGESTED. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS TAF
ISSUANCE. A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS HAS CAUSE
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE COMBINED
PANHANDLES. WE EXPECT THE STRONGEST GUST POTENTIAL WILL BE AT KAMA
AND KDHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40KT WHERE AS KGUY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
35KT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 10KT AND
20KT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER ELEMENT TODAY.
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...RESULTING
IN WINDY CONDITIONS. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED AT KAMA...AND AN
AVIATION WEATHER WARNING IS IN EFEFCT FROM NOON TODAY UNTIL 8 PM CDT
THIS EVENING WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 KTS AT TIMES AT THIS TERMINAL
SITE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY BY AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR BAJA WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A
FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE ISSUED
A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
COUNTIES FURTHER NORTH AND CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW HAVE BEEN
EXCLUDED AT THIS TIME AS IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH...BUT WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THE TREND AND
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW TO DETERMINE HOW FAR NORTH IT DEVELOPS. SEE
THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THINK MOST
OF THE PANHANDLES WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY...BUT HAVE INTRODUCED SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE A VORT MAX CROSSES THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD. DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS...BUT SOME
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HI-RES TTU WRF SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS DEPART TO THE
EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES IT
SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND
LESS WIND THAN TODAY.

ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND A CLOSED
UPPER LOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVES OVER THE PANHANDLES.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN INCREASING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OCCURRING
ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDER CHANCES ALSO START TAPERING OFF
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...LEAVING MAINLY A RAIN EVENT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED
RAIN...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE END OF APRIL. BEYOND TUESDAY...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET MID WEEK..AND BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK UP INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S.

FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY.
20FT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED...AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA.
HAVE ISSUED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR ALL OF THE PANHANDLES
AS...FROM STRICTLY A METEOROLOGICAL STANDPOINT OF CONSIDERING WIND
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SOME LOCALIZED AREAS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLES APPROACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...WITH ERC VALUES IN THE 30S...RECENT WETTING RAINS OVER THE
LAST WEEK OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES...AND THE RESULTANT GREEN-UP...WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. WINDS WILL
BEGIN DECREASING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...
     RANDALL...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/15





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.