Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 041721
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1221 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
ALONG WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES
WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CHANCES OF CONVECTION THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
AND VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR BY 22Z TODAY TO 00Z TUESDAY...AND
IFR TO LIFR AFTER 05Z TO 10Z TUESDAY. MAINLY SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER
23Z TODAY TO 00Z TUESDAY...AND THEN INCREASING AGAIN TO AROUND 15 TO
25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 10Z TO 14Z TUESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

AVIATION... /FOR THE 12Z TAFS/

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED FROM PREVIOUS TAFS. PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES WILL BE HIGHEST FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM TIMING REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND
PREVAILING TIME PERIOD MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IN LATER FORECASTS.
THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR TO POSSIBLY
IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE DURING THE EARLY TO MID
EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY
LOWER TO NEAR THE IFR CATEGORY TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

BRB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PUSH ONSHORE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
LATER TODAY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PANHANDLES WILL
ENCOURAGE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH ON GUSTY WINDS AS A LEE-SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS. THE INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH INCREASING
DYNAMICS FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY WILL ALL HELP TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS OUT INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP FOCUS THE BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST AS THE DRYLINE AND PACIFIC
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
RELOADS AND AN OSCILLATING DRYLINE IS FOUND ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
UNDER THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

THE PANHANDLES MAY DRY OUT BY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LIFTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS TO OUR NORTH.

HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SOME SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND
TUESDAY.  MOST OF THE INTENSE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES CLOSEST TO THE DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/14




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