Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 261012
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
512 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A WET ENDING TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. A FRONT CURRENTLY
DRAPED OVER THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE IS BRINGING IN LOW CLOUDS
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S WITH NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA AND
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER THIS MORNING.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW...SO HAVE DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE TODAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUDINESS. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE PANHANDLES AND THE RESULTANT AREA OF
INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NAM THE FASTEST WITH THE FRONT...DROPPING IT WELL INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 00Z MONDAY AND ALSO SHOWING THE
STRONGEST GRADIENT OF DEWPOINTS ALONG THE DRYLINE. AREAS TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE PANHANDLES WILL HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT FEEL THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE
SHEAR VALUES ARE HIGHER. IN ADDITION THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS...THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS IT SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA. THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE APPEAR TO RECEIVE THE MOST
RAIN THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EAST OF THE
REGION AND CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MID-WEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST AND ALLOWS THE AREA TO DRY OUT. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
BEGINS DE-AMPLIFYING BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN TO THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. LOCALIZED AREAS OF
HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE...DEPENDENT FIRST UPON COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY...AND ALSO OVER THE
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE FROM THE TRACK OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. SOME OF THE RIVERS...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT RISES DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN. ALSO...IF HEAVY
RAIN DEVELOPS OVER WHEELER... ROBERTS...GRAY AND HEMPHILL
COUNTIES...THEN WE COULD SEE SOME FLOODING ISSUES GIVEN THAT THESE
AREAS HAD HEAVY RAIN JUST A WEEK AND A HALF AGO.

&&

ELSENHEIMER

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                77  47  53  38  61 /  40  60  70  40  20
BEAVER OK                  66  45  51  40  64 /  60  80  80  40  10
BOISE CITY OK              62  42  47  36  61 /  70  80  80  30  10
BORGER TX                  75  48  51  42  64 /  50  70  80  50  20
BOYS RANCH TX              78  47  52  39  63 /  40  70  70  40  20
CANYON TX                  77  47  54  38  61 /  30  60  60  40  20
CLARENDON TX               77  50  57  41  62 /  40  50  70  50  20
DALHART TX                 72  44  49  36  62 /  50  80  70  30  10
GUYMON OK                  64  45  50  39  64 /  60  80  80  40  10
HEREFORD TX                78  46  54  37  61 /  30  50  60  40  20
LIPSCOMB TX                68  48  50  42  63 /  60  80  90  50  20
PAMPA TX                   72  47  51  39  60 /  50  70  80  50  20
SHAMROCK TX                75  52  57  44  63 /  40  70  80  50  30
WELLINGTON TX              79  54  60  46  64 /  40  60  70  50  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

02/18




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