Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 252342
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
642 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE THREE TAF SITES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE
GUYMON TAF SITE AROUND 01Z TO 05Z SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE AMARILLO AND
DALHART TAF SITES BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT
THE GUYMON TAF SITE AFTER 10Z TO 12Z SUNDAY. WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS...THEN SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT INCREASING TO AROUND 15 TO 25
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONVECTION POSSIBLE MAINLY AT THE GUYMON
AND DALHART TAF SITES AFTER 18Z TO 20Z SUNDAY...WILL MENTION VCTS
REMARK FOR NOW SINCE THIS IS DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SWING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND IT WILL GET CUTOFF FROM THE PARENT TROUGH
AS IT MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO BY MID DAY SUNDAY. THIS UPPER LOW
IS EXPECTED TO THEN SLOWLY MOVE EAST ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR AND THEN INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.

THE PANHANDLES STAND TO RECEIVE A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN FROM THIS
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE STRETCHED
FROM THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TO THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE. AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND INSTABILITY MOVE
ACROSS THIS FRONT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL ALSO HELP
TO PROVIDE INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THESE DEVELOPING STORMS.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THEY TRAVEL
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH THIS
UPPER STORM SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ACROSS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
WILL INCREASE AND WE WILL SEE THICKNESSES DIVERGE ACROSS US...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.

THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES SHOULD BE TO THE LEFT OF THE UPPER LOW
TRACK WHICH WILL PUT THIS AREA IN THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
MONDAY. THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT LINGERING SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST ON
TUESDAY.

THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF 3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE. SOME OF THE RIVERS...
MAINLY IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT RISES DUE
TO THE HEAVY RAIN. ALSO...IF HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS OVER WHEELER...
ROBERTS...GRAY AND HEMPHILL COUNTIES...THEN WE COULD SEE SOME
FLOODING ISSUES GIVEN THAT THESE AREAS HAD HEAVY RAIN JUST A WEEK
AND A HALF AGO.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/17




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