Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 301058
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
558 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND OSCILLATE BETWEEN SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A RETREATING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW THE MID 40S. FULL SUNSHINE TODAY AND
A WEAK LEE SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION. SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID 40S TO THE
LOWER 50S.

LONG TERM...
ALTHOUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST /FRIDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY/ STARTS OUT DRY...IT LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION TO A WET
WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WEEKEND WHERE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
AREA. NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE CAN
ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE
NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS MAKING FOR A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN PRECIP CHANCES.

THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND BUT WILL
BREAK DOWN DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE
CAN GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT
ANY RAINFALL TO STAY NORTH OF THE AREA AS DRY AIR WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE SURFACE.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS BY MONDAY EVENING AS THE DRYLINE RETREATS
INTO NEW MEXICO WHILE SURFACE WINDS BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. IN
ADDITION A PACIFIC UPPER LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED NEAR BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL HEAD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TUESDAY. THUS UPPER
LIFT PROVIDED BY THIS SYSTEM IN TANDEM WITH THE INCREASE IN
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY MONDAY.
BESIDES THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS SYSTEM BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH RAISES
CONCERNS FOR A PERIOD OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.
ADEQUATE SHEER AND BULK SHEAR VALUES ALSO SUPPORT THIS CONCERN. THIS
SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR THE
DRYLINE TO MIX EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. THUS EXPECT PRECIP TO GRADUALLY COME TO AN END TOWARD
WEDNESDAY EVENING. ANOTHER PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM CAN BRING YET
MORE RAINFALL TO THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER MUCH
CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN BUT STILL THIS SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING
OVER FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/05




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