Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 171017
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
515 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS MOVING OUT OF EASTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA
AT THIS TIME.  INFLUX OF DRY AIR WITH PACIFIC COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE
EXPECTED TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION TODAY IN WESTERN SECTIONS...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING EXPECTED IN EASTERN SECTIONS.  WITH RECCOVERY OF AIRMASS
TODAY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN
SECTIONS...OWING TO SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO EXPECTED TO MAKE A SLOW TREK TO THE EAST TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...BEFORE DEVELOPING INTO AN OPEN WAVE BY SUNDAY
MORNING.  LOW POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS
THROUGH SUNDAY...WHERE COLD AIR AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE NEAR CENTER OF
LOW MORE LIKELY TO RESIDE.

EXTENDED PERIOD OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH TUESDAY.  MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RESUMING TUESDAY...BUT MAJOR DIFFERENCES EXIST
REGARDING LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND QUANTITY OF MOISTURE RETURN.  HAVE KEPT
LOW THUNDERSTORM POPS GOING FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.  03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IN SPITE OF WETTING RAINS WHICH OCCURRED OVERNIGHT...DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE
9 TO 12 PERCENT RANGE TODAY WILL PROMOTE A RAPID DRYING POTENTIAL
WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING  ACROSS THE
WESTERNMOST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THIS AREA.  NO
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDTIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                73  43  74  44  67 /  10  10  10   5   5
BEAVER OK                  73  46  77  46  66 /  40  50  20  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              69  37  65  42  61 /  10  10  20  10  10
BORGER TX                  75  45  76  47  68 /  20  10  10  10   5
BOYS RANCH TX              75  40  74  44  68 /   5   5  10   5   5
CANYON TX                  74  41  74  44  67 /  10   5  10   5   5
CLARENDON TX               75  49  78  48  70 /  30  20  10  10   5
DALHART TX                 69  37  69  42  65 /  10   5  20  10   5
GUYMON OK                  75  40  73  45  64 /  20  10  20  20  10
HEREFORD TX                72  39  74  42  69 /   5   5  10   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                75  48  77  48  66 /  40  50  20  20  10
PAMPA TX                   73  46  75  46  66 /  20  20  10  10  10
SHAMROCK TX                74  51  78  50  69 /  40  40  10  10   5
WELLINGTON TX              78  52  80  52  72 /  50  40  10  10   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...
     HARTLEY...OLDHAM.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

08/03




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