Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KAMA 151156 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
656 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THIS TIME OVER
EASTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA ARE BEING ERODED FROM THE WEST AS FLOW
AROUND 850 MB VEERS TO SOUTHWEST.  KGUY EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY 14Z TODAY.  OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE DURATION OF THIS FORECAST.  SOUTH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED TO GUST INTO THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING AS LEE TROF DEEPENS.  HIGH-BASED CUMULUS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
REMAINING EAST OF ALL TERMINALS ALONG SHARPENING DRYLINE.

SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSING A THREAT TO ALL TERMINALS AFTER 03Z THURSDAY AS
DYNAMICS ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS...AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ALONG WITH ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY...PRESENT THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS.

A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW...WHICH WILL BE OUR MAIN WEATHER PLAYER OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WAS DIGGING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS IN THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAVE ENCOURAGED SOUTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT...WITH ATTENDANT MOISTURE
ADVECTION GENERATING SOME STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA. WINDS VEER TO MORE SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN PANHANDLES ALONG THE LLJ AXIS...THUS DON/T THINK THE STRATUS
AND PATCHY FOG WILL MAKE TOO MUCH MORE WESTWARD PROGRESS...BEFORE
ERODING LATER THIS MORNING.

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW...WITH THE CONSENSUS BEING A SLOW EVENTUAL EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. THE GFS REMAINS A FAST OUTLIER...AND THUS THE FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE SLOWER ECMWF/CMC/NAM/UKMET CONSENSUS. THE CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DIG SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN MAKE A SLOW EASTWARD TREK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...EVENTUALLY MOVING EAST OF THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER SOUTHEAST CO AND NORTHEAST
NM TODAY AHEAD OF THE DIGGING SYSTEM...WITH A DIFFUSE DRYLINE MIXING
INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES. SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW ALONG WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEP MIXING IN
VICINITY OF THE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL REMAIN LIMITED...BUT STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WHEN COMBINED WITH 30-35
KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT THE THREAT OF A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE AND WIND GUSTS AROUND
60 MPH THE MAIN CONCERNS. WEST OF THE DRYLINE...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED HIGH-BASED
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THESE AREAS COULD ALSO PRODUCE SOME ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS. SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT AIDED BY A 40-45 KT LLJ.

ALTHOUGH SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST EACH DAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE DAY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. A COLD FRONT
SHOULD EDGE INTO THE PANHANDLES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO RETREAT
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL NM...BACKING LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...WITH
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND STRONGEST INSTABILITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO MIX INTO THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES. GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE DRYLINE ALSO PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. FAVORABLY VEERING WIND PROFILES ALONG WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES PROGGED TO BE GENERALLY IN THE
1000-2000 J/KG RANGE...POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE SOUTHEAST TX
PANHANDLE...WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA. ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH IS INITIALLY WEAK THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT INCREASES SOME BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS
SURFACE WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MORE SO AS THE LLJ
STRENGTHENS DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THUS THERE MAY BE A
WINDOW FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO AS LOW-LEVEL SRH INCREASES AND
STORMS ARE STILL ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

LATEST MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE TO SURGE THE DRYLINE AND
MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY. HAVE
REORIENTED POPS SOMEWHAT TO REFLECT THIS...BUT THIS WILL ULTIMATELY
DEPEND ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW...THE DETAILS OF WHICH ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THEN OBVIOUSLY THE HIGHER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FOCUSED
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. AS THE COLD CORE OF
THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...SOME OF WHICH COULD AGAIN BE
SEVERE. WE COULD SEE ONE LAST GASP OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH WEAKER INSTABILITY BY THIS TIME
SHOULD MINIMIZE THE SEVERE THREAT.

LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...A MORE PROGRESSIVE BUT
PERTURBED FLOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP...POSSIBLY BRINGING A COUPLE MORE
CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO THE AREA.

AFTER A WARM DAY TODAY WITH TEMPS FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...TEMPS WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

KB

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 8 TO 20 PERCENT WEST OF A
DIFFUSE DRYLINE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE THE
STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME ERRATIC WIND GUSTS. NO ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE LEVELS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                80  49  72  45  67 /  20  40  50  50  40
BEAVER OK                  80  50  73  50  69 /  20  40  60  60  50
BOISE CITY OK              77  41  66  40  62 /  10  30  40  50  40
BORGER TX                  83  51  73  50  69 /  20  30  50  50  40
BOYS RANCH TX              83  46  75  44  68 /  20  30  40  40  30
CANYON TX                  80  48  73  44  67 /  20  30  50  40  40
CLARENDON TX               78  51  73  50  69 /  20  30  60  50  40
DALHART TX                 81  43  69  40  65 /  10  30  40  40  40
GUYMON OK                  82  47  70  47  67 /  10  30  50  50  40
HEREFORD TX                78  48  74  43  67 /  20  30  40  30  30
LIPSCOMB TX                77  53  74  50  68 /  20  40  60  60  50
PAMPA TX                   78  49  71  47  67 /  20  40  60  50  40
SHAMROCK TX                78  53  74  51  69 /  20  30  60  60  50
WELLINGTON TX              78  54  75  50  70 /  20  30  60  60  50

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HARTLEY.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

03/08




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.