Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 211740
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1240 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

.UPDATE...

ADJUSTED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO REMOVE ALL BUT
WESTERN OK AND NORTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLES. MOISTURE AND FORCING SEEMS TO
BE LIMITED AND ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL BE ISOLATED AND COMING OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NEW MEXICO OR INITIATING ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AXIS.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z UPDATE...

KAMA AND KDHT WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD. KGUY SHOULD BE
VFR UNTIL 12Z TOMORROW WHERE THEY DROP TO MVFR DUE TO LOW CLOUDS
BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BE SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY.  AS THE FRONT APPROACHES EACH SITE...WINDS WILL SHIFT
TOWARDS THE EAST AROUND 01Z TO 02Z AND THEN WILL BE MORE NORTHEASTERLY
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN 12Z TO 16Z. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...HOWEVER OUTSIDE OF KGUY...THIS
SHOULD NOT AFFECT VFR CONDITIONS. AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
EVENING KDHT AND KGUY MAY SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BUT CONFIDENCE
WAS TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS IN THE TAFS.

KB/MB

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY...A SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ORIENT ITSELF ALONG THE
NM AND TX STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL FORCING
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS WEAK AND PROJECTED MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
NOT ALL THAT SUBSTANTIAL EITHER. THERE COULD BE ISOLD TSTMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA...MAINLY DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING. WENT WITH THE 10 POP RULE FOR THE REGION FOR TODAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MARGINAL SVR WIND GUSTS AND HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN
THREATS SHOULD ANY STORMS FORM AT ALL.

IT SEEMS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AS
A LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP...WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPINGE ON A SWD MOVG
COLD FRONT. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES ON COLD FRONTAL
TIMING. HAVE USED A COMPROMISE SOLUTION ON THAT FEATURE FOR THIS
PCKG. TSTMS THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED IN NATURE...
WITH HAIL POTENTIAL THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

SFC COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE TO A POSITION JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FCST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. COOLEST TEMPS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NRN AND
NERN ZONES AND WARMEST FAR SRN TX PNHDL. SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS LOOK
PLAUSIBLE FOR WED AND WED NIGHT. SOME SVR POTENTIAL PSBL...WITH SERN
TX PNHDL MOST FAVORED AREA.

FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS ARE WARRANTED
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA FROM
BAJA CA.

THIS PARTICULAR STORM SYSTEM WILL ZIP NEWD ON A TRACK THAT WILL PLACE
THE FCST AREA IN THE DRY SLOT REGION ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THIS SCNEARIO SO HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY
FCST FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT AT THIS TIME. DRY WEATHER PROGGED TO
PREVAIL SATURDAY THRU MOST OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER IN HANDLING THIS STORM
SYSTEM. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS A CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.
THIS TRANSLATES TO SLGT CHC POPS CNTRL AND ERN AONES SUN NIGHT. A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS THEN SLATED FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

16/05





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