Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 291115
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
615 AM CDT WED APR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/ FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT /AT OR UNDER 10 KTS/ WHILE
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING GRADUALLY BACKING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT WED APR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED.

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLES TODAY TO CONTINUE DRY
WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REACH
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S BUT AREAS THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
WITH OUR LAST SYSTEM MAY STOP JUST SHORT OF THE 70 DEGREE MARK. LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ARE ALSO EXPECTED TODAY. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE PANHANDLES BY THURSDAY WHICH
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AREA
WIDE.

MODELS AGREE ON THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENING A LITTLE ON FRIDAY WHICH
COULD ALLOW NEW MEXICO MOUNTAIN STORMS REACH THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE AREA. A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
STORMS TO OVERCOME A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION WHILE MOVING OFF THE
MOUNTAINS. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DEEP SHEAR OF 25KT - 30KT SHOULD
LIMIT STORM INTENSITY TO THE STRONG CATEGORY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

OVER THE WEEKEND, MORE SHORTWAVES ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO KEEP
LOW END POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIP POTENTIAL
ON SUNDAY AS THEY ARE HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING THE TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE AND WEAKENED MOISTURE RETURN PRIOR TO THE
SHORTWAVE. HAVE RETAINED LOW END POPS FOR NOW AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS PERIOD CLOSELY AS TIME GOES FORWARD.

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA MONDAY AND INTO
SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO TUESDAY MORNING. AS THIS TROUGH
APPROACHES THE PANHANDLES PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE AREA WIDE. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS HAVEN`T COME INTO FULL AGREEMENT ON THE ORIENTATION OF
THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLES, BUT THE GFS HAS
CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A SLIGHT NEGATIVELY TILTED ORIENTATION WHICH WOULD
BODE WELL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. MUCH
CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN SO STAY TUNED.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

05/14




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