Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 052335
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
635 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING NORTH AND EAST OUT OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE THREE TAF SITES BETWEEN
00Z AND 03Z WEDNESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN AND NEAR THE
CONVECTION. WINDS IN AND NEAR THE CONVECTION MAY BE 25 TO 35 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE AMARILLO TAF SITE. SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 14Z TO 15Z WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY TONIGHT. THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW WEAKENS
INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT TRACKS NORTH AND EAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WEDNESDAY. STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WITH A SURFACE
LOW ON THE FRONT OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
SURFACE TROUGH OR PSEUDO-DRYLINE EXTENDS SOUTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO WESTERN
KANSAS WEDNESDAY... THE SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL MIX EAST ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES TO NEAR THE CAPROCK BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN UP AND STRENGTHENING OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL
RETREAT BACK TO THE WEST AS A VIGOROUS CLOSED UPPER LOW APPROACHES
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE GREAT BASIN REGION AND CALIFORNIA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST INTO THE PANHANDLES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION BY THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT STALLS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH AND EAST
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES SUNDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/15




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