Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 270935
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
435 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE FIRST 48 HOURS. THE UPPER
CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
INTO NORTHWESTERN TEXAS THIS MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...SATELLITE BLENDED
PWAT IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES
WITH VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 0.9 AND 1.2 INCHES. FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...THESE VALUES FALL BETWEEN THE 75TH PERCENTILE AND +2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS. THE STRONG DYNAMICS PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LOW AND THE
CONTINUAL SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IN THE FORECAST TODAY. WHILE RAINFALL RATES WILL LIKELY NOT
BE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY (MUCH LESS INSTABILITY TODAY) THE DURATION OF
PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY (UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S) UNDER OVERCAST SKIES.

THE LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS NORTHWESTERN TEXAS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS/SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA BY THIS EVENING. THE POSITION OF THE LOW AT THIS POINT WILL
PLACE THE PANHANDLES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND CAUSE HIGHER
PWAT VALUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS WILL LIMIT THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL AND REDUCE THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT. WILL KEEP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AS IS FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE AND ALLOW IT TO EXPIRE
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THESE LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PANHANDLES WILL REMAIN IN
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO AVERAGE AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. OVER THE WEEKEND WE COULD
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                49  37  61  39  71 /  80  30  20   5   0
BEAVER OK                  50  39  66  40  73 /  80  40   5   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              50  35  63  38  71 /  80  10   5   5   0
BORGER TX                  48  40  65  41  73 /  80  30  20   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              49  37  64  38  74 /  80  30  10   5   0
CANYON TX                  49  38  61  38  71 /  70  30  20   5   0
CLARENDON TX               53  42  62  43  72 /  80  50  20   5   5
DALHART TX                 47  36  63  38  72 /  80  20   5   5   0
GUYMON OK                  49  38  65  39  73 /  90  30   5   5   0
HEREFORD TX                49  38  62  38  72 /  70  30  10   5   0
LIPSCOMB TX                49  41  64  41  72 /  90  50  20   5   5
PAMPA TX                   48  39  61  41  71 /  80  40  20   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                53  43  63  42  72 /  80  60  20   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              56  45  64  43  74 /  80  60  20   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...
     HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...
     ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BEAVER...TEXAS.


&&

$$

05/14





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