Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 181153
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
653 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL PRODUCE LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS AT THE
AMARILLO TAF SITE UNTIL AROUND 14Z TO 15Z TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 15Z TO 16Z TODAY...AND THEN BECOME
NORTH AFTER 00Z SUNDAY 10 TO 20 KNOTS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL CO/NM BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY. AS IT DOES SO...THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED
TO MIX TO NEAR THE EASTERN CWA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. STILL SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER IT WILL HANG UP IN THE EXTREME EASTERN
PANHANDLES...OR MAKE IT INTO WESTERN OK. OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS
FAVORS IT MIXING INTO WESTERN OK...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE HIGHER RES
MODELS DO HANG IT UP IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. THE HEAVY RAIN THAT FELL
IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN PANHANDLES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT COULD
SLOW DOWN THE MIXING PROCESS...SO CAN/T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF
IT STALLING IN OUR FAR EAST. NONETHELESS...WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON EVEN WEST
OF THE DRYLINE AS A VORT LOBE PIVOTS AROUND THE PARENT UPPER
LOW...AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN BENEATH THE COLD CORE ALOFT.
INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY WEAK WEST OF THE DRYLINE...THUS NO STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED...AND ANY RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT. IF THE
DRYLINE HANGS UP IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES...COULD SEE A COUPLE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE AND WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH. EVEN IF THE TONGUE OF INSTABILITY CLIPS OUR
FAR EAST...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...ON THE ORDER OF 30 KTS...KEEPING DOWN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
SEVERE THREAT.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY OPEN UP AND SLIDE TO OUR EAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS IT GETS SNAGGED BY THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM. NORTH WINDS WILL KICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT...MAKING FOR A
WINDY SUNDAY. COULD SEE SOME POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLES SUNDAY...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING FOR ANY THUNDER.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. AS
THE 1015-1020 MB SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES IN AND WINDS TURN
LIGHT...TEMPS MAY FALL INTO THE MID OR EVEN LOWER 30S ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA. LOWS WILL ULTIMATELY HINGE ON CLOUD COVER AS MODELS SHOW
SOME MID CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE.

A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LACKING FOR ANY SEVERE CONVECTION. THIS LOOKS
TO BE A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES COMING MONDAY
NIGHT AS H85 THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES ALONG THE LLJ AXIS.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY
MIDWEEK AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW KEEPING
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THE DRYLINE IN PLAY...ALONG WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVES EJECTING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WILL SUPPORT INTERMITTENT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY
INCREASE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF A BACKDOOR FRONT OOZING INTO THE AREA BY
LATE WEEK...SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.

KB

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY TRANSIENT AND MARGINAL...WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT AND WEST/SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH. GIVEN THIS AND THE RAIN THAT FELL OVER MOST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY
THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY...BUT MOST OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH NORTH WINDS INCREASING
TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS BEHIND IT. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ABOVE 20 PERCENT...PRECLUDING ANY ELEVATED
OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/08





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