Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KAMA 051610 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1110 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.UPDATE...CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR TODAY AS EVERYTHING REGARDING AFTN
POPS AND THUNDERSTORM CHARACTER WILL HING ON HOW MUCH THE AREA CLEARS
AND RECOVERS FROM CURRENT SHIELD OF RAIN WHICH IS MVG NE ACROSS THE
CWA. PRECIP AREAS LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING WERE ASSOC W/ TWO
SEPARATE SPOKES OF VORT ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPR LOW
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS. BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD
HAS ENTERED SW COUNTIES AND WILL PUSH THROUGH AMA AROUND LUNCH TIME.
CLOUD EDGE IS LAGGING BEHIND SOMEWHAT...BUT DOES APPEARS A CLEARING
LINE WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM SW TO NE PROVIDING SEVERAL HOURS FOR SOME
MODEST RECOVERY IN TEMPS AND SERLY WIND FIELDS AS THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 21Z AND 3Z. WE BELIEVE THIS MEANS
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SWRN ZONES AND SPREAD NE ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME W/ THE ASSOC DRY LINE PROVIDING THE LOW
LEVEL FOCUS. MODELS DEPICT INCREASING WIND FIELDS WITH 0-3 KM
HELICITY INCREASING TO 200-400 J/KG WITH INCREASINF CAP/INSTABILITY WHICH
WOULD LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SVR TSTMS ESP ACROSS S CEN AND
ERN CWA...BUT AGAIN THIS WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDING ON CLEARING SOME
THIS AFTN. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS UNFORTUNATELY ARE NOT
IN AGREEMENT IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT JUST NOTED THE HRRR
TRENDED TOWARDS MORE AGRESSIVE NAM FORECAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME
AND TTU-WRF DOES SHOW SOME INCREASING UPDRAFT HELICITY IN STORMS
WHICH IT DEVELOPS...ESP ACROSS SERN CWA IN LATE AFTN AND EVENING. SPC
CONTINUES TO SHOW SRN AREAS IN SLIGHT RISK WITH MARGINAL RISK
ELSEWHERE.

GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WE HAVE SEEN THROUGH THIS
MORNING (AND LAST WEEK FOR THAT MATTER)...FLOOD WATCHES ARE ALSO BEING
CONSIDERED FOR POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL W/ THIS LAST CONVECTIVE
EVENT (W/ QUICK 1-3 INCH POSSIBLE)...BUT WE HAVE HELD OFF GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY FOR NOW AND LACK OF AGREEMENT IN MESOSCALE MODELS.
MORNING UPDATES ATTEMPTED TO SHOW CATEGORICAL RAINFALL THIS MORNING
AND THEN LIKELY POPS FOR AFTN W/ INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS AND
SVR WX. MADE ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND SKY BASED ON TRENDS
AND NEW MODEL DATA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

AVIATION... /FOR THE 12Z TAFS/

COMPLICATED FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM WITH DEPARTING MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTEX. CURRENT OBS DO NOT MATCH SHORT TERM GUIDANCE WITH
REGARDS TO WIND AS A RESULT. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT
NORTHERLY OR VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS
STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR
STRATUS WILL IMPACT THE THREE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
BY A RETURN TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INTERMITTENT SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS INSTABILITY INCREASES.

BRB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP...RICH MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES...AS EVIDENCED BY 850 MB DEWPOINTS IN THE 10 TO 12
DEGREE RANGE AND 700 MB DEWPOINTS IN THE 2 TO 5 DEGREE RANGE.
MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP MOISTURE
SUSTAINED.  WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...
OWING TO MODERATELY STRONG DYNAMICS EMERGING FROM MID-LEVEL TROF.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED.  SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY IF ANY
CLEARING DEVELOPS...WHICH IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS.  HOWEVER...MORNING CLOUDS AND RAIN SEEM LIKELY TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID- TO UPPER-60S TODAY.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A RECOVERY DAY...WITH WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
MINIMIZING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS KEPT ONLY
FOR EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE INSTABILITY AXIS EXPECTED TO LINGER.

POPS INCLUDED FOR ALL SECTIONS THURSDAY...AS STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES...WITH DRYLINE SETTING UP AGAIN.  EASTERN SECTIONS
CONTINUE TO BE MOST FAVORED FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORM POPS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  ON SUNDAY...
CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST...ALLOWING DRY AIR TO ARRIVE.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

MJG




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.