Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 232345
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
645 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AT THE
TERMINALS...EXPECT A STRATUS DECK TO MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT...DROPPING
CIGS TO MVFR AT KAMA/KGUY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AT
KDHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING WITH SCT-
BKN MID CLOUD DECK MOVING OVERHEAD. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT BUT WILL VEER OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY. SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS. HAVE SOME
CONCERN THAT AN AVIATION WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED AT KAMA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TO LOW TO ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PACKAGE. SHORT AND
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN LINE WITH RECENT RUNS.
FORECAST FOCUS IS FOR WARM AND WINDY WEATHER ON FRIDAY...THEN THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER RETURN FOR THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST.

NF

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...
LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING HAVE HAMPERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES, MOST NOTABLY ACROSS THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S. WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY REACHED INTO THE 70S.

HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS TO DEVELOP AROUND THE DALHART/DUMAS/STRATFORD AREA THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS A WEAK
CAPPING INVERSION IN THIS AREA BUT THE REMAINS ENOUGH HEATING TIME
FOR THIS INVERSION TO BE OVERCOME. SHOULD THE CAP BE BROKEN...THEN
STORMS WILL HAVE ROUGHLY 500-1000 J/KG TO WORK WITH. AS THESE STORMS
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST THEY WILL MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THEIR EASTWARD PROGRESSION. SOME ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION MAY FORM ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT BUT
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW STRONG LEVELS.

14

LONG TERM...FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A WARM AND WINDY DAY FOR THE PANHANDLES...QUITE
THE CHANGE AFTER THE LAST FEW COOLER AND WETTER DAYS. AHEAD OF A
SWIFTLY APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THE SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED
AS WARM TEMPERATURES HELP TO MIX DOWN HIGHER WINDS FROM A MID-LEVEL
SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. FROM A FIRE WEATHER
PERSPECTIVE...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...THOUGH FUELS ARE GREENING UP ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA DUE TO WARMER TEMPS AND RECENT RAINS. WILL LEAVE THE
CALL FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS UNTIL THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE.

AFTER FRIDAY...THE FOCUS TURNS TO YET ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DIGGING INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE
AGREES FAIRLY WELL ON A TRACK FOR IT THAT WOULD TAKE IT DIRECTLY OVER
THE PANHANDLES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME BETWEEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. BEST
CHANCES AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE ON MONDAY.

BEHIND THE LOW...UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD HELP TO MODERATE
TEMPERATURES AND LEAVE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY AFTER
TUESDAY. OVERALL THOUGH...THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE WEEK...SO THERE COULD BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION INTO NEXT WEEKEND IF THAT HOLDS TRUE.

NF

FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE CERTAINLY EXPECTED AREA-WIDE ON
FRIDAY...THOUGH RECENT WETTING RAINS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES HAVE
HELPED FINE FUELS BEGIN THEIR SPRING GREEN-UP. IF ANY FIRE WEATHER
PRODUCTS ARE ISSUED FOR FRIDAY...GREATEST CHANCES FOR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED IN THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

05




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