Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 172114
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
414 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...
VISIBLE SATELLITE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS ACROSS
THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THIS AREA. FURTHER WEST MID CLOUDS WERE
PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE PANHANDLES BUT WERE
ERODING QUICKLY AND SURFACE WINDS WERE BEGINNING TO VEER TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE AS MIXING STRENGTHENS. THERE ARE TWO MAIN
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM. 1.) FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH DEEP
MIXING BEHIND THE DRYLINE RESULTING IN DRYING AND STRENGTHENING OF
WINDS. CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY BE MET IN THE COUNTIES BORDERING NEW
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THIS TO HAPPEN WILL
BE BETWEEN 2 PM AND 8 PM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF CRITICAL/NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY
FURTHER EAST. 2.) THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM AHEAD OF
THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD NEAR THE
COLORADO NEW MEXICO BORDER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A GRADUAL TENDENCY
TOWARD LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A DISTINCT
VORT MAX WAS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR LOOP OVER WEST CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. LOW CLOUDS AND DOWNSTREAM
CONVECTION HAVE COMPLICATED THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW MID TO UPPER 50 DEGREE DEW POINTS
GENERALLY COINCIDENT WITH WERE LOW CLOUDS LINGER. 12Z KAMA OBSERVED
SOUNDING SHOWED AN EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER ABOVE A VERY SHALLOW
NEAR-SURFACE MOIST LAYER. THIS MAY RESULT IN FAIRLY RAPID MIXING OUT
OF THE SEEMINGLY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER AS CLOUDS DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AT LEAST HINTS AT THIS.
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ARE NOT VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT
OF STORMS. MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES TO BETTER REPRESENT EXPECTED COVERAGE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. IF STORMS DEVELOP...STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD YIELD MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.

THE OTHER SHORT TERM CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR WESTWARD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SURGE AFTER MIXING SUBSIDES THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG COULD FORM LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE PANHANDLES ROUGHLY.

BRB

.LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MIX EAST OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY...LEAVING THE AREA UNDER DRY AND BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT
WESTWARD IN THE EVENING...WITH RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING TO
THE AREA. UPPER LIFT FROM THIS LOW AND A POCKET OF COLD AIR ALOFT CAN
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE
BULK OF THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE EAST OF THE AMA CWA...LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS CAN BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL SCOUR
OUT ANY MOISTURE SO EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WELL EAST OF THE
AREA. IN ADDITION...A COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL SPREAD
OVER THE AREA. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

THERE CAN BE ON AND OFF AGAIN PRECIP CHANCES NEXT WEEK AS INITIALLY
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THIS UPPER FLOW
AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA CAN
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING. THE UPPER
FLOW BACKS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
CALIFORNIA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE SURFACE
FEATURES IN THIS PERIOD WHERE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE GENERALLY ACCEPTED THE
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WITH 20-30 PERCENT POPS THROUGH FRIDAY.

CLK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES UNTIL 8 PM. SOUTHWEST 20 FOOT WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
INCREASE BUT MAY STILL APPROACH 20 MPH FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS EARLY
THIS EVENING. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 15 TO 20
PERCENT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...CAUSING
WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. NEITHER ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 20 PERCENT. WETTING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

CLK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                42  74  44  67  41 /  10  10  20  10  10
BEAVER OK                  44  76  45  66  37 /  20  20  20  10  10
BOISE CITY OK              36  65  42  61  37 /   5  10  20  10  10
BORGER TX                  43  76  46  69  44 /  10  10  20   5  10
BOYS RANCH TX              38  74  44  68  40 /   5  10  20  10  10
CANYON TX                  38  75  45  68  42 /   5  10  20  10  10
CLARENDON TX               47  77  48  69  44 /  20  10  20  10  10
DALHART TX                 36  71  42  65  38 /   5  10  20  10  10
GUYMON OK                  38  71  44  65  39 /  10  10  20   5  10
HEREFORD TX                38  74  43  68  40 /   0  10  20  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                48  77  47  66  39 /  20  20  30  10  10
PAMPA TX                   43  75  43  65  40 /  20  10  30   5  10
SHAMROCK TX                49  77  50  68  41 /  20  20  20  10  10
WELLINGTON TX              54  79  52  72  45 /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...OLDHAM.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

17/05





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