Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 010333 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1033 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS AVIATION AFD REASONING.
ISOLD TSTMS MAY APPROACH KDHT AND KGUY FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW WITH THIS SCENARIO SO HAVE CONTINUED TO OMIT
MENTION OF TSTMS AT THOSE SITES FROM THIS TAF FCST CYCLE. OUTSIDE OF
THE ABV MENTIONED ISOLD TSTM POTENTIAL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY EVENING.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...ISOLD TSTMS MAY APPROACH KDHT VERY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW WITH THIS SCENARIO SO
HAVE OPTED TO OMIT MENTION OF TSTMS AT THAT SITE FROM THIS TAF FCST
CYCLE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS.  LOW POPS RETAINED FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS A
SMALL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST SECTIONS FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AND WARM AS LIGHT MID-
LEVEL FLOW WITH 500 MB RIDGE PREVAILS.

FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ENERGIZED BEGINNING SUNDAY WITH DEPARTURE
OF RIDGE.  LOW POPS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES
WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TROF.  LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH MOISTURE INCREASING.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW TRANSITIONS TO
NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROF AS IT APPROACHES.  DRYLINE EXPECTED TO
SHARPEN AS RICH MOISTURE ARRIVES AND DEEPENS.  STRONG AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING DURING THIS TIME.

SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN
EASTERN SECTIONS AS DRYLINE MAY HANG UP.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT RAINFALL AND THE RESULTING GREEN UP OF FUELS ACROSS THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES WILL PRECLUDE ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$





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