Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 252005
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
305 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SWING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND IT WILL GET CUTOFF FROM THE PARENT TROUGH
AS IT MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO BY MID DAY SUNDAY. THIS UPPER LOW
IS EXPECTED TO THEN SLOWLY MOVE EAST ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR AND THEN INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.

THE PANHANDLES STAND TO RECEIVE A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN FROM THIS
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE STRETCHED
FROM THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TO THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE. AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND INSTABILITY MOVE
ACROSS THIS FRONT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL ALSO HELP
TO PROVIDE INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THESE DEVELOPING STORMS.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THEY TRAVEL
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH THIS
UPPER STORM SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ACROSS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
WILL INCREASE AND WE WILL SEE THICKNESSES DIVERGE ACROSS US...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.

THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES SHOULD BE TO THE LEFT OF THE UPPER LOW
TRACK WHICH WILL PUT THIS AREA IN THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
MONDAY. THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT LINGERING SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST ON
TUESDAY.

THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF 3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE. SOME OF THE RIVERS...
MAINLY IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT RISES DUE
TO THE HEAVY RAIN. ALSO...IF HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS OVER WHEELER...
ROBERTS...GRAY AND HEMPHILL COUNTIES...THEN WE COULD SEE SOME
FLOODING ISSUES GIVEN THAT THESE AREAS HAD HEAVY RAIN JUST A WEEK
AND A HALF AGO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                50  77  48  55  40 /   5  30  50  50  40
BEAVER OK                  52  64  47  49  41 /  20  70  70  80  50
BOISE CITY OK              46  65  44  44  37 /  20  70  80  80  40
BORGER TX                  51  77  49  53  42 /   5  50  70  60  40
BOYS RANCH TX              49  78  48  54  41 /   5  30  60  60  40
CANYON TX                  50  78  47  57  40 /   5  30  50  50  40
CLARENDON TX               53  81  52  59  43 /   5  30  50  60  50
DALHART TX                 47  73  46  48  39 /  20  40  70  70  30
GUYMON OK                  50  64  47  47  40 /  20  70  80  80  40
HEREFORD TX                49  76  45  56  40 /   5  30  40  40  40
LIPSCOMB TX                52  68  49  49  43 /  20  70  70  80  50
PAMPA TX                   50  74  49  53  41 /   5  40  70  60  40
SHAMROCK TX                51  79  53  59  45 /   5  30  50  70  50
WELLINGTON TX              52  83  55  62  46 /   5  30  50  70  50

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/15




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