Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 300348 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1048 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY EVENING.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR AND OVERLAY OF 12Z RAOB DATA INDICATES TROUGHING IN THE
EAST AND RIDGING IN THE WEST WITH NORTHERLY FLOW IN BETWEEN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL STATES. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE
FLOW PATTERN WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS OUR
AREA AS WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OUR WAY. THIS WILL
BRING A WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE RISEN TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS. AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND SURFACE LEE TROUGH
GRADUALLY DEVELOPS...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY TONIGHT BUT WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. SEVERAL LOCATIONS SAW VERY LOW TEMPERATURE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE. DESPITE LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST GROUND FROM
RECENT RAINS THERE WAS NO EVIDENCE OF FOG ON ASOS/AWOS VISIBILITY
SENSORS OR 11-3.9 IR. WITH SIMILAR SURFACE DEW POINTS
UPSTREAM...CANNOT JUSTIFY A HIGHER CHANCE OF FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE AREA TOMORROW BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. LEE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN TOMORROW SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR SOUTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.

THE TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
MAY AS THIS HAPPENS. 500 MB HEIGHTS SLOWLY FALL DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY AND UPPER
TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST DEEPENS. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH
A SIGNAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO
AND NEW MEXICO EACH AFTERNOON FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST
NOTABLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER FROM THIS WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. THIS IS THE MOST CHALLENGING PART OF THE FORECAST.
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS AND WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PREVENT
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF CONVECTION FROM ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA.
STILL THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH JUSTIFICATION TO MAINTAIN VERY LOW
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES MAINLY ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE REFINED IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

PERSISTENT SURFACE HIGH OVER THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
CAUSE WESTERLY TRAJECTORIES OVER THE GULF BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE
INTO SOUTH TEXAS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN
WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL EARLY WEEK AS STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING TROUGH BRINGS THIS MOISTURE FROM
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NORTHWARD. THIS WILL BE WHEN OUR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE THE HIGHEST. MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS
IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING A TROUGH TO A FAVORABLE
POSITION EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR A DECENT PRECIPITATION EVENT ACROSS THE
AREA. WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY STRONG FORCING ALOFT
THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY HIGH PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION INCLUDING
THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY
AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







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