Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KAMA 042059
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
359 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND THIS WILL BE MEETING UP WITH A SURGE OF
GULF MOISTURE TO GIVE THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HIGH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL
BE LOWER THAN TODAY DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THE MODELS ARE
HINTING AT A CHANCE OF SOME DRY AIR BEING BROUGHT INTO THE SOUTHWEST
TX PANHANDLE. IF THIS HAPPENS...CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASED AND MORE
DAYTIME HEATING CAN TAKE PLACE THUS INCREASING MAX TEMPS. THIS EXTRA
HEATING WILL ALSO ALLOW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE INSTEAD OF JUST BEING
A CONSISTENT RAIN EVENT. SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS THE SOUTHERN TX
PANHANDLE IN A SLIGHT RISK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POSSIBLE PWAT
VALUES OF 1.15 INCHES TUESDAY...WHICH IS 2 PLUS STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. RAIN AMOUNTS FOR THE AREA WILL BE WIDESPREAD 1 TO
3 INCHES WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR
AREAS THAT SEE MORE CONVECTIVE STORMS. SINCE THIS IS MORE OF A LONG
DURATION RAIN EVENT THAN QUICK PICKUP...WE ARE HOLDING OFF ON A FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS POINT. BY WEDNESDAY SKIES CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE WEST AND
DAYTIME TEMPS COME BACK UP TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
AREA. THE MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHERE THE DRY LINE IS
GOING TO SET UP THOUGH. THE GFS IS PUSHING THE DRY LINE AS FAR EAST
AS OKLAHOMA. THE NAM KEEPS IT MORE IN THE MIDDLE OF OUR CWA AND THE
ECMWF BLENDS THE TWO OPTIONS. IF THE DRY LINE SETS UP IN OUR
AREA...WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE STORMS FORM AND SOME MAY BE SEVERE.

MB

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF INTO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, THE PANHANDLES WILL RESIDE IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES/WESTERN OKLAHOMA WHILE WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES COULD
HELP CONVECTION TO INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY THE INFLUENCE OF THE EARLY WEEK PRECIP
WILL DIMINISH TO ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO SURGE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
SHOULD IT DIMINISH QUICKER THAN EXPECTED THEN WE COULD MISS OUT ON
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALL TOGETHER.

OVER THE WEEKEND ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL APPROACH THE
PANHANDLES BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVEN`T COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH
RESPECT TO THE DRYSLOT OF THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS MORE OPTIMISTIC
IN RESPECT TO POP CHANCES WHERE AS THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE DRY. THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED WITH TIME.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                57  65  54  79  55 /  90  80  50   5  10
BEAVER OK                  59  65  58  83  58 /  90  80  60  20  10
BOISE CITY OK              53  66  49  79  48 /  90  80  40   5  10
BORGER TX                  58  67  58  82  58 /  90  80  50  10  10
BOYS RANCH TX              57  69  52  82  52 /  90  80  40   5   5
CANYON TX                  56  66  53  79  54 /  90  80  40   5  10
CLARENDON TX               58  66  58  81  59 /  90  80  70  20  30
DALHART TX                 54  66  50  80  48 /  90  80  40   5   5
GUYMON OK                  57  66  55  82  53 /  90  80  50   5  10
HEREFORD TX                55  69  51  80  52 /  90  70  40   5  10
LIPSCOMB TX                61  65  59  81  61 /  90  80  60  30  20
PAMPA TX                   57  63  56  79  57 /  90  80  60  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                60  66  59  81  61 /  90  80  60  30  30
WELLINGTON TX              61  68  61  82  62 /  80  80  70  30  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/14/16




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.