Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 022338 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
638 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WRN AND NWRN PARTS OF
THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BY SUNSET...THEN INCREASE AGAIN MID TO LATE MORNING SUNDAY. ISOLD TO
SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER WRN AND CNTRL PARTS
OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE OPTED TO OMIT THIS WEATHER
ELEMENT FROM THIS TAF FCST CYCLE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
TERMINAL SITE BEING IMPACTED.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST...OTHER THAN TO TWEAK
TIMING AND EXPECTED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS...AS RIDGE-RIDING VORTICITY MAXIMUM SUPPORTS
CONVECTION MOVING EAST FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW AND IMPROVING INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
CENTRAL CORRIDOR MORE FAVORED BY SUNDAY EVENING OWING TO SLIGHTLY
STRONGER CONVERGENCE BECOMING ALIGNED WITH INSTABILITY AXIS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING STILL LOOK TO OFFER BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOAKING RAINS.  DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL
PROMOTE LARGE-SCALE LIFT IN MOISTENING REGIME OF STRENGTHENING MID-
LEVEL FLOW.  LOW POPS IN MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS GULF REMAINS OPEN TO THIS AREA.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW 20 PERCENT
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH AS THIS OCCURS...MOIST FUELS WILL
LIMIT RAPID FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL AND ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE UNLIKELY. WETTING RAINS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FURTHER MOISTEN FUELS...WITH NO ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. 03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$






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