Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 022048
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
348 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST...OTHER THAN TO TWEAK
TIMING AND EXPECTED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS...AS RIDGE-RIDING VORTICITY MAXIMUM SUPPORTS
CONVECTION MOVING EAST FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW AND IMPROVING INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
CENTRAL CORRIDOR MORE FAVORED BY SUNDAY EVENING OWING TO SLIGHTLY
STRONGER CONVERGENCE BECOMING ALIGNED WITH INSTABILITY AXIS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING STILL LOOK TO OFFER BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOAKING RAINS.  DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL
PROMOTE LARGE-SCALE LIFT IN MOISTENING REGIME OF STRENGTHENING MID-
LEVEL FLOW.  LOW POPS IN MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS GULF REMAINS OPEN TO THIS AREA.  03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW 20 PERCENT
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH AS THIS OCCURS...MOIST FUELS WILL
LIMIT RAPID FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL AND ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE UNLIKELY. WETTING RAINS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FURTHER MOISTEN FUELS...WITH NO ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. 03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                57  86  58  76  56 /   5  20  30  50  70
BEAVER OK                  59  88  60  80  59 /  10  20  30  50  70
BOISE CITY OK              53  85  54  70  54 /  20  30  20  60  70
BORGER TX                  60  88  60  79  58 /   5  20  30  50  70
BOYS RANCH TX              57  88  58  76  57 /  10  30  30  60  70
CANYON TX                  56  86  57  76  57 /   5  20  30  60  70
CLARENDON TX               57  85  59  77  58 /   5   5  30  40  70
DALHART TX                 54  87  54  73  54 /  20  30  20  60  70
GUYMON OK                  57  88  57  77  57 /  10  30  30  60  70
HEREFORD TX                55  87  56  74  56 /   5  20  30  60  70
LIPSCOMB TX                60  86  60  79  59 /  10  10  20  40  70
PAMPA TX                   58  84  58  75  56 /   5  10  30  40  70
SHAMROCK TX                57  84  60  77  60 /  10   5  20  40  60
WELLINGTON TX              58  85  60  79  60 /  10   5  20  30  60

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/03



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