Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 070352
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1052 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.UPDATE...
THE DRYLINE IS CURRENTLY RETREATING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TX
PANHANDLE. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE
CURRENTLY SOME STORMS JUST TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS...AND WITH LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL JET
AXIS...SOME FURTHER NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE.
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TX PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT...SO CERTAINLY CAN/T RULE OUT SOME HAIL IF
STORMS DO DEVELOP.

KB

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...THE DRYLINE IS CURRENTLY RETREATING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE. EXPECT ANY POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN
EAST OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT...HOWEVER WITH THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN...CONFIDENCE IN SEEING LOW CLOUDS AT KAMA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING HAS INCREASED. THUS HAVE INTRODUCED SOME MVFR CIGS
STARTING AROUND 10Z. THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. COULD SEE SOME MORNING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT BELIEVE
THESE WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE TERMINALS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES AT KAMA AND
KGUY.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EASTERN COLORADO WILL BE
MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  WITH THIS MOVEMENT WE WILL SEE THE DRY
LINE RETREAT FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL SET US UP FOR CONVECTION TO
INITIATE OVER THE CENTRAL TX AND OK PANHANDLES TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE WARMER DUE TO THIS EXTRA MOISTURE
PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE WHERE MIN TEMPS WILL
ONLY DROP DOWN TO THE LOW 60S.  THE EXTRA MOISTURE ALSO MEANS CLOUD
COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
PREVENTING DAYTIME TEMPS TOMORROW FROM GOING MUCH BEYOND THE LOWER
80S.  WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.  PRECIP AMOUNTS FROM THE STORMS
TOMORROW COULD BE UP TO A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH AT BEST.  THESE
STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE.  SPC HAS THE CENTRAL TX AND
OK PANHANDLES EASTWARD IN A SLIGHT RISK.  SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR ARE NOT GREAT HOWEVER THE GFS HAS 2500J/KG OF CAPE FOR THE
EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND THE NAM HAS OVER 3000J/KG.  SO ANY STORMS
THAT FORM WILL HAVE PLENTY OF BUOYANCY TO WORK WITH.  MAIN THREATS
WITH THE STORMS WOULD BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS AND WINDS
UP TO 70 MPH.  TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT THE THREAT WILL BE LOW.

MB

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE IT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING
BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY
FRIDAY EVENING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO PUSH SOUTH AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE
NORTH ONCE AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO LATE SATURDAY AND THEN ACROSS
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE INTO KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL TRACK EAST OUT OF CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SOUTHWESTERN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SEVERE WEATHER A POSSIBILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL THEN LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE
LOW WILL THEN DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY
BRINGING MUCH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE PANHANDLES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE PANHANDLES TUESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/06




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